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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BAL
SEA

SEA

67-54

3
4
BAL

BAL

54-66

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
17,290 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

SEA 3 · BAL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000001023
BAL0000003014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 28, 25sim 98
    163
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 97
    132
    21(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 97
    164
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 96
    123
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    184
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    255
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 13·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Seattle Mariners, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Ryan Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA67-54
3
4
BAL54-66
SEA67-54·BAL54-66
SEA

SEA

67-54

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000001
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-44000001
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44220000
SPRINT28.688
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33110011
SPRINT25.818
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44012001
SPRINT23.81
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-33000001
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000000
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-33020001
SPRINT25.513
D. MooreD. Moore★CF
0-33000002
Team6-3232363018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
6.1422261
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.2311010
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.0000010
M. BrashM. BrashRP
0.2211010
Team8.2944291
BAL

BAL

54-66

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-55011000
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
1-33010010
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44010002
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-44000001
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
2-33121110
R. NodaR. Noda★1B
0-33000003
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT2872
D. JohnsonD. Johnson★CF
0-22000000
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
2-44120001
G. AllenG. AllenCF
0-11000001
J. JacksonJ. Jackson2B
1-22111000
SPRINT26.530
Team9-3535493129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
7.0411060
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
1.0100020
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.1122100
K. AkinK. AkinRP
0.2000000
Team9.0633180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    79 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.6 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      41%·88.2 mph·54% whiff
    • FS
      8%·81.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Brash
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·85.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.9 mph·— whiff
  • G. Speier
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      40%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      30%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      80%·97.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      20%·95.3 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    95 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.3 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      26%·86.7 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.7 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      9%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·77.7 mph·17% whiff
  • D. Enns
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      50%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      50%·94.7 mph·50% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      67%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • K. Akin
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • CH
      50%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·83.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

9

3

Runs

4

2

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Aug 12SEASEA1@BALBAL0
Aug 13SEASEA3@BALBAL4today
Aug 14SEASEA3@BALBAL5

Season series

BAL leads series 4-1

Jun 4BALBAL5@SEASEA1
Jun 5BALBAL3@SEASEA2
Jun 5BALBAL4@SEASEA3
Aug 12SEASEA1@BALBAL0
Aug 13SEASEA3@BALBAL4today
Aug 14SEASEA3@BALBAL5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 44pp · Bottom 9th Inning

SEASEA
J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
R. Mountcastle

R. Mountcastle

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

BAL beat SEA 4-3. Holliday's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).

Win probability

BAL vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 7th Inning · 1-1
+22pp→ 56% WP

Mountcastle · homered to center (394 feet).

BALBottom 7th Inning · 1-3
+31pp→ 87% WP

J. Jackson · tripled to right, J. Jackson scored on throwing error by first baseman Naylor and Mayo scored.

BALBottom 9th Inning · 3-4
+44pp→ 100% WP

Holliday · doubled to right, Carlson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000001023
BAL0000003014

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · BAL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
3

Inn 7

Naylor 1

Jackson 2

0
0

Inn 8

2
1

Inn 9

Naylor 1

Holliday 1

SEA
BAL

Play-by-play · 503 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 4

  2. B9

    Holliday doubled to right, Carlson scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 4

    +44pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  7. B9

    Matt Brash pitches to Jackson Holliday

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 4

  8. B9

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  9. B9

    Carlson singled to right.

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

    +3pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  16. B9

    Matt Brash pitches to Dylan Carlson

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  17. B9

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  18. B9

    J. Jackson grounded out to third.

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

    −4pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  23. B9

    Matt Brash pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  24. B9

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  25. B9

    Mayo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

    −5pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

  30. B9

    Matt Brash pitches to Coby Mayo

    ·

    SEA 3·BAL 3

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

9

2

Errors

0

8

TB

16

0

HR

1

1

BB

2

8

K

9

13

LOB

10

Player projections

BAL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    43.8%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.7%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.1%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872