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FINAL+1CHC
CHC

CHC

76-55

4
3
LAA

LAA

61-69

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
41,206 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 4 · LAA 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0011200004
LAA1000020003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesCHC win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC76-55
4
3
LAA61-69
CHC76-55·LAA61-69
CHC

CHC

76-55

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-55110001
SPRINT25.716
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-33111021
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44010011
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44001000
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44011000
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-22100021
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44021000
SPRINT28.278
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-44000001
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
2-44120000
SPRINT28.992
Team8-3434484055
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TaillonJ. Taillon★SP
5.0311031
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0221010
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0100010
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000010
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0100130
Team9.0732191
LAA

LAA

61-69

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-44000003
T. WardT. Ward★LF
2-44222101
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.867
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-44000001
N. KavadasN. Kavadas★1B
0-22000000
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
1-44010001
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-44010001
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
0-11000000
Team7-3535372119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HendricksK. Hendricks★SP
4.1544320
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
0.2100010
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.0200110
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0000000
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0000010
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.0000100
SPRINT27.148
Team9.0844550

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    62 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      34%·91.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      26%·84.9 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·79.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      6%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      63%·89.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    26 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      77%·98.5 mph·63% whiff
    • SL
      12%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      45%·75.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      40%·92.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Keller
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·85.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.3 mph·0% whiff

LAA

  • K. Hendricks
    76 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      50%·80.4 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      33%·86.8 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      14%·87.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      3%·72.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Silseth
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      38%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      12%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Fermin
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      61%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      39%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·97.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SV
      8%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      70%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chafin
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      56%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      44%·79.9 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 3-0

Aug 23CHCCHC3@LAALAA2
Aug 24CHCCHC12@LAALAA1
Aug 24CHCCHC4@LAALAA3today

Season series

CHC win series 3-0

Aug 23CHCCHC3@LAALAA2
Aug 24CHCCHC12@LAALAA1
Aug 24CHCCHC4@LAALAA3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 9th Inning

CHCCHC
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H

LAALAA
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHC beat LAA 4-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 67% WP

Hoerner · doubled to center, Happ scored.

LAABottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+14pp→ 31% WP

Rengifo · singled to center.

CHCBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+15pp→ 86% WP

Moore · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0011200004
LAA1000020003

Period scoring

CHC won 3 · LAA won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Ward 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Tucker 1

1
0

Inn 4

Hoerner 1

2
0

Inn 5

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
2

Inn 6

Ward 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
LAA

Play-by-play · 580 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  3. B9

    Teodosio struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

    −14pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  8. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Bryce Teodosio

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  9. B9

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  10. B9

    Moore struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

    −15pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  17. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Christian Moore

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  18. B9

    Lugo ran for Moncada

    ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  19. B9

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  20. B9

    Moncada walked, Rengifo to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

    +10pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  28. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Yoan Moncada

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  29. B9

    Moncada hit for Peraza

    ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

  30. B9

    · ·

    CHC 4·LAA 3

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

4

Runs

3

8

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

10

TB

11

0

HR

1

5

BB

1

5

K

9

13

LOB

11

Player projections

LAA vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    42.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.6%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 6, 25sim 97
    224
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 97
    123
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 96
    163
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    162
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    132
    21(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 95
    142
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278