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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1HOU
HOU

HOU

60-42

4
3
ARI

ARI

50-53

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
22,513 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 4 · ARI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000020114
ARI1000000203

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    142
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    123
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 95
    145
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    183
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    160
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    143
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Zack Short

Zack Short

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Geraldo Perdomo

Geraldo Perdomo

SS

2.000OPS

4-4

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU60-42
4
3
ARI50-53
HOU60-42·ARI50-53
HOU

HOU

60-42

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
1-33010021
SPRINT2744
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-55010000
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-55121003
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
3-55230000
SPRINT25.513
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-44001002
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-33011010
SPRINT26.428
C. HummelC. Hummel★LF
1-33010000
C. McCormickC. McCormick★LF
0-44000000
S. WhitcombS. Whitcomb★3B
1-33010001
C. SmithC. SmithRF
0-11000000
Z. ShortZ. ShortSS
1-11110000
Team11-37374113037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WalterB. Walter★SP
7.0411151
B. SousaB. SousaRP
1.0422100
J. HaderJ. HaderRP
1.0100020
Team9.0933271
ARI

ARI

50-53

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-55221101
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-44011000
SPRINT29.496
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-33000010
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-33000012
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44011000
SPRINT23.81
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-44000001
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
0-44000002
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.175
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
4-44140000
SPRINT26.838
Team9-3535393127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. PfaadtB. Pfaadt★RP
5.1522250
A. SaalfrankA. SaalfrankRP
1.0000100
T. RichardsT. RichardsRP
1.2311010
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0311010
Team9.01144370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • B. Walter
    82 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      24%·88.4 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      24%·78.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      22%·80.3 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Sousa
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      52%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      48%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hader
    18 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      50%·82.1 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      39%·94.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.7 mph·100% whiff

ARI

  • B. Pfaadt
    89 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      46%·92.4 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      22%·85.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      20%·90.7 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·81.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Saalfrank
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • CU
      56%·79.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      32%·88.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      12%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      88%·95.0 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Richards
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      76%·90.5 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      24%·78.3 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

HOU wins series 3-0

Jul 22HOUHOU6@ARIARI3
Jul 23HOUHOU3@ARIARI1
Jul 23HOUHOU4@ARIARI3today

Season series

HOU wins series 3-0

Jul 22HOUHOU6@ARIARI3
Jul 23HOUHOU3@ARIARI1
Jul 23HOUHOU4@ARIARI3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 37pp · Top 9th Inning

HOUHOU
Z. Short

Z. Short

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

B. Walter

B. Walter

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
G. Perdomo

G. Perdomo

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

HOU beat ARI 4-3. Short's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+28pp→ 71% WP

Carroll · doubled to right, Perdomo scored, Marte to third.

HOUTop 9th Inning · 3-3
+37pp→ 61% WP

Short · reached on bunt single to pitcher.

HOUTop 9th Inning · 4-3
+28pp→ 89% WP

Walker · singled to center, Short scored, Trammell to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000020114
ARI1000000203

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · ARI won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
2

Inn 8

Dub 1

Carroll 1

1
0

Inn 9

Walker 1

HOU
ARI

Play-by-play · 569 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  3. B9

    Marte struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

    −10pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  10. B9

    Josh Hader pitches to Ketel Marte

    · ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  11. B9

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  12. B9

    Perdomo singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

    +5pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  16. B9

    Josh Hader pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  17. B9

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  18. B9

    Alexander grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

    −7pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  23. B9

    Josh Hader pitches to Blaze Alexander

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  24. B9

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  25. B9

    McCann struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

    −9pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 4·ARI 3

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

4

Runs

3

11

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

14

TB

15

0

HR

1

3

BB

2

7

K

7

24

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ARI vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    44.7%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.5%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.5%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.