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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CHC
CHC

CHC

68-51

4
1
TOR

TOR

70-51

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
43,120 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 4 · TOR 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0010100204
TOR0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 97
    161
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 96
    101
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 96
    104
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 95
    161
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 93
    191
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 93
    24
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 13·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Andres Gimenez

Andres Gimenez

SS

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC68-51
4
1
TOR70-51
CHC68-51·TOR70-51
CHC

CHC

68-51

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-33112100
SPRINT25.716
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-33011010
SPRINT27.457
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44000001
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000003
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000001
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.278
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-44000000
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33211110
SPRINT28.992
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
1-33010000
SPRINT257
Team6-3232464226
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HortonC. Horton★SP
5.2111280
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
0.2100000
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.2000010
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000000
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0000010
Team9.02112100
TOR

TOR

70-51

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT27.148
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-22000021
SPRINT25.716
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44011000
SPRINT26.123
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-44000001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-33000001
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33000002
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
0-22000001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-33000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-33110001
SPRINT27.560
T. FranceT. France1B
0-11000001
Team2-29291210210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
7.0322132
B. FisherB. FisherRP
0.1222100
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2000020
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.0100010
Team9.0644262

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Horton
    82 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.7 mph·6% whiff
    • ST
      24%·82.3 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.2 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      10%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.4 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      73%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·75.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·101.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      22%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·89.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·92.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      14%·88.0 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    84 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      61%·93.5 mph·7% whiff
    • FS
      24%·83.1 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      15%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      39%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·82.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      6%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • CU
      60%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FC
      57%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      43%·82.5 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

2

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 12CHCCHC1@TORTOR5
Aug 13CHCCHC4@TORTOR1today
Aug 14CHCCHC1@TORTOR2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 12CHCCHC1@TORTOR5
Aug 13CHCCHC4@TORTOR1today
Aug 14CHCCHC1@TORTOR2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 6th Inning

CHCCHC
M. Shaw

M. Shaw

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Horton

C. Horton

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

TORTOR
A. Gimenez

A. Gimenez

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.667 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat TOR 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 54% WP

Busch · homered to right (356 feet).

CHCTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 72% WP

Shaw · homered to left (358 feet).

TORBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 42% WP

Guerrero Jr. · doubled to left, Giménez scored, Bichette to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0010100204
TOR0000010001

Period scoring

CHC won 3 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Busch 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Shaw 1

0
1

Inn 6

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Busch 1

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
TOR

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  3. B9

    Barger grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  8. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Addison Barger

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  9. B9

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  10. B9

    Guerrero Jr. grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

    −2pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  13. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  14. B9

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  15. B9

    Bichette struck out looking.

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

    −2pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  19. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Bo Bichette

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  20. B9

    Palencia relieved Keller

    ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  23. T9

    · ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  24. T9

    Shaw flied out to left.

    · ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  27. T9

    Tommy Nance pitches to Matt Shaw

    · ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  29. T9

    Swanson grounded out to third.

    · ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 4·TOR 1

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

4

Runs

1

6

Hits

2

0

Errors

0

12

TB

3

2

HR

0

2

BB

2

6

K

10

6

LOB

5

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

TOR vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    56.3%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.2%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.5%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.