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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
CHC

CHC

68-52

1
2
TOR

TOR

71-51

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
43,270 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

CHC 1 · TOR 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000010001
TOR000000202

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    161
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    164
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    181
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    191
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 94
    104
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 92
    24
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Aug 14·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Chicago Cubs, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC68-52
1
2
TOR71-51
CHC68-52·TOR71-51
CHC

CHC

68-52

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-33111101
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.662
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44000001
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-33000011
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-44000001
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT28.278
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-44000001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT28.992
Team6-3333161129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
7.0222151
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0100010
Team8.0322161
TOR

TOR

71-51

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-22100011
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-22000001
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-33112100
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-33000000
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-33000001
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-33010001
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-22000001
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
1-33010000
SPRINT25.513
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
0-22000000
A. KirkA. KirkC
0-11000001
Team3-2424232116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
7.0511131
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.2000120
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
0.1000010
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0100030
Team9.0611291

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • M. Boyd
    78 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.8 mph·5% whiff
    • CH
      33%·79.7 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      10%·74.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      81%·93.0 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      19%·84.6 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • M. Scherzer
    78 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.9 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Little
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • KC
      56%·87.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      44%·93.4 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.3 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.7 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      17%·89.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      33%·98.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      33%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·86.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 12CHCCHC1@TORTOR5
Aug 13CHCCHC4@TORTOR1
Aug 14CHCCHC1@TORTOR2today

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 12CHCCHC1@TORTOR5
Aug 13CHCCHC4@TORTOR1
Aug 14CHCCHC1@TORTOR2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 34pp · Bottom 7th Inning

CHCCHC
M. Busch

M. Busch

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat CHC 2-1. Guerrero Jr.'s play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Win probability

TOR vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 6th Inning · 1-0
+16pp→ 67% WP

Busch · homered to right center (409 feet).

TORBottom 7th Inning · 1-2
+34pp→ 77% WP

Guerrero Jr. · homered to center (402 feet), Schneider scored.

TORTop 8th Inning · 1-2
+19pp→ 72% WP

Tucker · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000010001
TOR00000020—2

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Busch 1

0
2

Inn 7

Jr. 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
TOR

Play-by-play · 442 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  2. T9

    Swanson struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  6. T9

    Hoerner stole second.

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  7. T9

    Hoerner stole second.

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  10. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Dansby Swanson

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  11. T9

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  12. T9

    Castro struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

    +10pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  16. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Willi Castro

    · ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  17. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  18. T9

    Hoerner singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

    −7pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  20. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  21. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  22. T9

    Caissie struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

    +8pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  26. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Owen Caissie

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  27. T9

    Hoffman relieved Domínguez

    ·

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  28. T9

    Lukes in right field.

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  29. T9

    Straw in left field.

    CHC 1·TOR 2

  30. T9

    Varsho in center field.

    CHC 1·TOR 2

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

1

Runs

2

6

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

12

TB

6

1

HR

1

2

BB

1

9

K

6

15

LOB

3

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

TOR vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    54.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.1%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.