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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TOR
NYY

NYY

55-45

1
4
TOR

TOR

59-41

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,788 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

NYY 1 · TOR 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0001000001
TOR000040004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    164
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 94
    105
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 93
    181
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 93
    181
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 93
    282
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 93
    161
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Jul 21·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off New York Yankees, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton

DH

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY55-45
1
4
TOR59-41
NYY55-45·TOR59-41
NYY

NYY

55-45

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33000012
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT28.175
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44111100
SPRINT23.81
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
0-44000001
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-44010003
SPRINT24.74
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-44000002
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000000
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT28.278
B. RiceB. Rice1B
0-11000001
Team5-32321511312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
5.0642540
S. EffrossS. EffrossRP
1.0000100
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
2.0000000
Team8.0642640
TOR

TOR

59-41

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-55000000
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-33100011
SPRINT25.920
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-22110020
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44112000
SPRINT25.716
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
2-44020000
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-22000010
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT29.597
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★3B
0-11000020
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
1-44010001
A. BargerA. BargerRF
0-11000000
N. LukesN. LukesRF
0-11000000
Team6-3131462064
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
7.0411281
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.1100110
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
0.2000000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000030
Team9.05113121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    107 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.5 mph·12% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.3 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.0 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      56%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      37%·86.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Effross
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      60%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·78.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·82.1 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    86 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      73%·93.8 mph·19% whiff
    • FS
      21%·83.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      6%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      69%·97.7 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      25%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Little
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • KC
      58%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      42%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    6 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      83%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

6

1

Runs

4

2

Errors

1

Current series

TOR wins series 6-1

Jun 30NYYNYY4@TORTOR5
Jul 1NYYNYY5@TORTOR12
Jul 2NYYNYY9@TORTOR11
Jul 3NYYNYY5@TORTOR8
Jul 21NYYNYY1@TORTOR4today
Jul 22NYYNYY5@TORTOR4
Jul 23NYYNYY4@TORTOR8

Season series

TOR leads series 6-2

Apr 25TORTOR4@NYYNYY2
Apr 26TORTOR0@NYYNYY0
Apr 27TORTOR2@NYYNYY11
Apr 27TORTOR1@NYYNYY5
Jun 30NYYNYY4@TORTOR5
Jul 1NYYNYY5@TORTOR12
Jul 2NYYNYY9@TORTOR11
Jul 3NYYNYY5@TORTOR8
Jul 21NYYNYY1@TORTOR4today
Jul 22NYYNYY5@TORTOR4
Jul 23NYYNYY4@TORTOR8
Sep 5TORTOR7@NYYNYY1
Sep 6TORTOR1@NYYNYY3
Sep 7TORTOR3@NYYNYY4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 5th Inning

NYYNYY
G. Stanton

G. Stanton

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 5 BB

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TOR beat NYY 4-1. Bichette's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

TOR vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 65% WP

Stanton · homered to left (370 feet).

TORBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+22pp→ 76% WP

Bichette · doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored.

TORBottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+12pp→ 80% WP

Straw · reached on infield single to third, Bichette scored on throwing error by third baseman Peraza, Straw to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0001000001
TOR00004000—4

Period scoring

NYY won 1 · TOR won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Stanton 1

0
4

Inn 5

Bichette 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYY
TOR

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  2. T9

    Rice struck out looking.

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  8. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Ben Rice

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  9. T9

    Rice hit for Volpe

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  10. T9

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  11. T9

    Wells struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

    +0.8pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  17. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Austin Wells

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  18. T9

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  19. T9

    Goldschmidt struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

    +2pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  26. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Paul Goldschmidt

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  27. T9

    Hoffman relieved Rodríguez

    ·

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  28. T9

    Lukes in right field.

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  29. T9

    Barger at third base.

    NYY 1·TOR 4

  30. T9

    Clement at second base.

    NYY 1·TOR 4

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

1

Runs

4

5

Hits

6

2

Errors

1

9

TB

9

1

HR

0

3

BB

6

12

K

4

13

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    57.2%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.6%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.9%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.