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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3NYY
NYY

NYY

82-65

4
1
BOS

BOS

81-67

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,760 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 4 · BOS 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY1010002004
BOS0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    193
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 96
    24
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    164
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    161
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 94
    105
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 94
    161
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 12·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Nate Eaton

Nate Eaton

OF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY82-65
4
1
BOS81-67
NYY82-65·BOS81-67
NYY

NYY

82-65

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-55000002
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-33211121
SPRINT26.838
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-33021000
SPRINT26.941
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-33010012
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT28.175
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000012
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-44110000
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-44111000
SPRINT2622
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
0-11000000
Team9-3434494148
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilL. Gil★SP
6.0000440
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.0111131
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0100010
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000020
Team9.02115101
BOS

BOS

81-67

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44000001
SPRINT29.294
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.818
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT27.969
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-44000003
SPRINT25.411
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-44000000
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-33000012
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-33000011
N. EatonN. Eaton★OF
1-44111102
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-11000021
Team2-30301211510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
5.2521161
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
1.1222120
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.0100200
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
1.0100000
Team9.0943481

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • L. Gil
    93 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.2 mph·12% whiff
    • CH
      38%·91.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • FS
      45%·81.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      35%·93.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.6 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      40%·84.4 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      62%·77.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.2 mph·25% whiff

BOS

  • L. Giolito
    99 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.6 mph·21% whiff
    • SL
      37%·85.1 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      19%·81.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      2%·76.6 mph·— whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • CH
      24%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      24%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wilson
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • CU
      50%·79.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·77.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

2

4

Runs

1

2

Errors

3

Current series

BOS wins series 4-2

Jun 13NYYNYY1@BOSBOS2
Jun 14NYYNYY3@BOSBOS4
Jun 15NYYNYY0@BOSBOS2
Sep 12NYYNYY4@BOSBOS1today
Sep 13NYYNYY5@BOSBOS3
Sep 14NYYNYY4@BOSBOS6

Season series

BOS leads series 8-3

Jun 6BOSBOS6@NYYNYY9
Jun 7BOSBOS10@NYYNYY7
Jun 8BOSBOS11@NYYNYY7
Jun 13NYYNYY1@BOSBOS2
Jun 14NYYNYY3@BOSBOS4
Jun 15NYYNYY0@BOSBOS2
Aug 21BOSBOS6@NYYNYY3
Aug 22BOSBOS1@NYYNYY0
Aug 23BOSBOS12@NYYNYY1
Aug 24BOSBOS2@NYYNYY7
Sep 12NYYNYY4@BOSBOS1today
Sep 13NYYNYY5@BOSBOS3
Sep 14NYYNYY4@BOSBOS6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 3rd Inning

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

L. Gil

L. Gil

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 BB

BOSBOS
N. Eaton

N. Eaton

OF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat BOS 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 54% WP

Judge · homered to center (468 feet).

NYYTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 68% WP

Bellinger · singled to left, Judge scored, Rice to third.

BOSBottom 8th Inning · 4-1
+11pp→ 17% WP

Bregman · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY1010002004
BOS0000001001

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

4

Runs

1

9

Hits

2

2

Errors

3

13

TB

5

1

HR

1

4

BB

5

8

K

10

14

LOB

17

Win probability

BOS vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

NYY won 3 · BOS won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Judge 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Bellinger 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
1

Inn 7

McMahon 1

Eaton 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYY
BOS

Play-by-play · 585 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  2. B9

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  3. B9

    Eaton struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  8. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Nate Eaton

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  9. B9

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  10. B9

    Hamilton popped out to third.

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

    −1pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  16. B9

    David Bednar pitches to David Hamilton

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  17. B9

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  18. B9

    Narváez struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

    −2pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  23. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Carlos Narvaez

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  24. B9

    Bednar relieved Williams

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  27. T9

    · ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  28. T9

    Goldschmidt grounded out to second.

    · ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 4·BOS 1

Player projections

BOS vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    55.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.8%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.3%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294