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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CHW
DET

DET

69-52

6
9
CHW

CHW

44-76

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
19,494 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

DET 6 · CHW 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0001002036
CHW000051129

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 12·Final/SeriesDET wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Detroit Tigers, 9–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler

C

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Edgar Quero

Edgar Quero

C

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET69-52
6
9
CHW44-76
DET69-52·CHW44-76
DET

DET

69-52

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
2-55123102
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-55010000
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-11100001
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-44020010
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000014
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33001001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-22000002
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-22212100
SPRINT27.765
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
0-22000000
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-33000000
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
1-22110000
J. BaezJ. BaezSS
0-11000001
J. RogersJ. RogersC
1-11110000
Team8-35356862211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
4.1855160
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.2110300
C. HeuerC. HeuerRP
1.2211121
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.1222220
Team8.013987101
CHW

CHW

44-76

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
2-44120010
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-55010003
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-55112002
SPRINT26.326
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44011011
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-33011010
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-33100021
K. TeelK. Teel★C
2-44121011
E. QueroE. Quero★C
3-55233100
SPRINT24.12
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
2-55221002
SPRINT26.838
Team13-383891391710
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. GomezY. Gomez★RP
5.0111170
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
1.0322011
M. VasilM. VasilRP
2.2432121
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
0.1000010
Team9.08652112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    86 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.8 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      36%·78.2 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.3 mph·30% whiff
  • C. Heuer
    37 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      59%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      41%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    34 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      71%·86.4 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.0 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      3%·92.1 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • Y. Gomez
    89 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.5 mph·32% whiff
    • CU
      19%·81.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      4%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Vasil
    57 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      40%·95.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      19%·82.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      12%·86.5 mph·75% whiff
    • ST
      11%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    29 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      28%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·79.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      21%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      17%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      7%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • SL
      60%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      40%·96.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

13

6

Runs

9

1

Errors

2

Current series

DET wins series 4-3

Jun 2DETDET13@CHWCHW1
Jun 3DETDET1@CHWCHW8
Jun 4DETDET5@CHWCHW4
Jun 5DETDET2@CHWCHW3
Aug 11DETDET2@CHWCHW1
Aug 12DETDET6@CHWCHW9today
Aug 13DETDET1@CHWCHW0

Season series

DET leads series 6-3

Apr 4CHWCHW4@DETDET7
Apr 5CHWCHW2@DETDET7
Apr 6CHWCHW3@DETDET4
Jun 2DETDET13@CHWCHW1
Jun 3DETDET1@CHWCHW8
Jun 4DETDET5@CHWCHW4
Jun 5DETDET2@CHWCHW3
Aug 11DETDET2@CHWCHW1
Aug 12DETDET6@CHWCHW9today
Aug 13DETDET1@CHWCHW0
Sep 5CHWCHW7@DETDET5
Sep 6CHWCHW0@DETDET6
Sep 7CHWCHW6@DETDET4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 5th Inning

DETDET
D. Dingler

D. Dingler

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
E. Quero

E. Quero

C

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

Y. Gomez

Y. Gomez

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHW beat DET 9-6. Montgomery's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

CHW vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 72% WP

Greene · doubled to center, Carpenter to third.

CHWBottom 5th Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 53% WP

Quero · singled to center, Teel to third.

CHWBottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+19pp→ 84% WP

Montgomery · singled to right, Mead scored and Quero scored, Tauchman to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0001002036
CHW00005112—9

Period scoring

DET won 2 · CHW won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

0
5

Inn 5

Montgomery 2

0
1

Inn 6

Benintendi 1

2
1

Inn 7

Dingler 2

Quero 1

0
2

Inn 8

Quero 2

3

Inn 9

Keith 3

DET
CHW

Play-by-play · 677 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  2. T9

    Torkelson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  8. T9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    · ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  9. T9

    Leasure relieved Vasil

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  10. T9

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  11. T9

    Greene walked.

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

    −0.6pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  18. T9

    Mike Vasil pitches to Riley Greene

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  19. T9

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  20. T9

    Jones grounded out to third.

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

    +1pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  24. T9

    Mike Vasil pitches to Jahmai Jones

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  25. T9

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  26. T9

    Torres grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

    +2pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 6·CHW 9

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

6

Runs

9

8

Hits

13

1

Errors

2

16

TB

16

2

HR

1

2

BB

7

11

K

10

18

LOB

28

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHW vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Tristan PetersCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Randal GrichukCHW
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    43.5%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.8%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.2%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    712
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 95
    286
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    286
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 95
    59
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    54
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 92
    178
    20(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs