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FINAL+2ATL
MIA

MIA

56-58

6
8
ATL

ATL

48-66

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
32,460 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

MIA 6 · ATL 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0501000006
ATL200003218

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    286
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 96
    59
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 96
    65
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    66
    4(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    712
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    281
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Aug 7·Final/SeriesATL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Miami Marlins, 8–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Graham Pauley

Graham Pauley

3B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

2.400OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA56-58
6
8
ATL48-66
MIA56-58·ATL48-66
MIA

MIA

56-58

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-55120000
SPRINT2872
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
1-55010001
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-55011001
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-22110020
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44110003
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-44121000
SPRINT27.765
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
1-44112001
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-33000000
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
1-33112100
SPRINT26.326
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
0-11000001
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
0-11000000
Team10-37376106127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
5.1755213
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
0.2100010
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
0.1121110
A. BenderA. BenderRP
0.2000100
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
1.0211010
Team8.01187443
ATL

ATL

48-66

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-33200020
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-44120012
SPRINT25.513
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
3-55235200
SPRINT26.632
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
2-44121100
SPRINT25.614
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44000000
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-33010011
E. WhiteE. White★CF
1-44010000
J. OrnelasJ. Ornelas★SS
2-44120000
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-22000000
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.SS
0-11100001
Team11-34348116344
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CarrascoC. Carrasco★RP
5.2966221
D. DoddD. DoddRP
0.1000000
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0100010
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0000020
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000020
Team9.01066271

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Perez
    82 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.2 mph·71% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      6%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·83.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Simpson
    18 pitches·6% CSW
    • CU
      33%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·83.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Gibson
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • CU
      41%·78.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      36%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·91.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Bender
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      50%·84.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      30%·97.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.4 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • C. Carrasco
    103 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      34%·84.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      26%·89.5 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      18%·76.3 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      12%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.1 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      33%·89.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      57%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      43%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      69%·85.6 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      23%·87.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • D. Dodd
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      100%·93.5 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

6

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 5-2

Apr 4MIAMIA0@ATLATL10
Apr 5MIAMIA4@ATLATL0
Apr 6MIAMIA0@ATLATL0
Aug 7MIAMIA6@ATLATL8today
Aug 8MIAMIA5@ATLATL1
Aug 9MIAMIA1@ATLATL7
Aug 9MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 10MIAMIA1@ATLATL7

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 4MIAMIA0@ATLATL10
Apr 5MIAMIA4@ATLATL0
Apr 6MIAMIA0@ATLATL0
Jun 20ATLATL2@MIAMIA6
Jun 21ATLATL7@MIAMIA0
Jun 22ATLATL3@MIAMIA5
Aug 7MIAMIA6@ATLATL8today
Aug 8MIAMIA5@ATLATL1
Aug 9MIAMIA1@ATLATL7
Aug 9MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 10MIAMIA1@ATLATL7
Aug 25ATLATL1@MIAMIA2
Aug 26ATLATL11@MIAMIA2
Aug 27ATLATL12@MIAMIA1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 6th Inning

MIAMIA
G. Pauley

G. Pauley

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 1 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.400 OPS

C. Carrasco

C. Carrasco

RP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat MIA 8-6. Baldwin's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

ATL vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 2nd Inning · 3-2
+17pp→ 66% WP

Wagaman · tripled to center, Lopez scored and Marsee scored.

ATLBottom 6th Inning · 6-5
+20pp→ 43% WP

Baldwin · homered to right center (422 feet), Profar scored and Olson scored.

ATLBottom 7th Inning · 6-6
+20pp→ 69% WP

Baldwin · singled to left, Alvarez Jr. scored, Profar to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0501000006
ATL20000321—8

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · ATL won 4

0
2

Inn 1

Baldwin 1

5
0

Inn 2

Wagaman 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Baldwin 3

0
2

Inn 7

Baldwin 1

0
1

Inn 8

Olson 1

0

Inn 9

MIA
ATL

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  2. T9

    Ramírez struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  8. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  9. T9

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  10. T9

    Stowers struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

    +2pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  16. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Kyle Stowers

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  17. T9

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  18. T9

    Edwards flied out to third.

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

    +4pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  24. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Xavier Edwards

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  25. T9

    Iglesias relieved Lee

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  28. B8

    · ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  29. B8

    Baldwin grounded out to third.

    · ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

    −1pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

6

Runs

8

10

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

16

TB

21

1

HR

3

2

BB

4

7

K

4

12

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ATL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.7± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    43.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.0%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.8%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.