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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CLE
CLE

CLE

60-55

9
5
CHW

CHW

42-74

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
21,007 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 9 · CHW 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE5013000009
CHW0010031005

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 8·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 9–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Corey Julks

Corey Julks

LF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE60-55
9
5
CHW42-74
CLE60-55·CHW42-74
CLE

CLE

60-55

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-55000002
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-44211012
SPRINT27.457
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44110011
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
2-33220010
SPRINT25.411
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
2-44124010
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-44010001
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-33100011
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
2-44123002
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-44110000
Team10-35359108059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
5.1544471
M. FestaM. FestaRP
0.2000110
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0211000
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.0100020
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0100010
Team9.09555111
CHW

CHW

42-74

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-33000011
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-22000000
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-55010001
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-22000001
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44110010
SPRINT26.326
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44012002
SPRINT26.838
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-33011011
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
1-33010011
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-44111102
J. RojasJ. Rojas3B
0-11000001
C. JulksC. JulksLF
2-33220001
J. AmayaJ. AmayaSS
1-22111010
Team9-36365951511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
3.1899260
M. VasilM. VasilRP
3.2200330
W. GonzálezW. GonzálezRP
2.0000000
Team9.01099590

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    98 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.1 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      22%·82.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      9%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Smith
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      86%·94.8 mph·11% whiff
    • FS
      9%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      95%·93.5 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      5%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • M. Festa
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      37%·92.4 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      32%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      26%·91.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Junis
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      31%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      31%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.1 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • A. Civale
    77 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      30%·92.0 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      25%·89.1 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.7 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      9%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Vasil
    61 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      46%·93.3 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.1 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      20%·80.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • W. González
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      62%·94.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      19%·79.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

9

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 5-2

Jul 10CLECLE0@CHWCHW0
Jul 11CLECLE4@CHWCHW2
Jul 12CLECLE4@CHWCHW5
Jul 12CLECLE6@CHWCHW2
Jul 13CLECLE6@CHWCHW5
Aug 8CLECLE9@CHWCHW5today
Aug 9CLECLE3@CHWCHW1
Aug 10CLECLE4@CHWCHW6

Season series

CLE leads series 7-1

Apr 8CHWCHW0@CLECLE1
Apr 9CHWCHW2@CLECLE3
Apr 10CHWCHW1@CLECLE6
Jul 10CLECLE0@CHWCHW0
Jul 11CLECLE4@CHWCHW2
Jul 12CLECLE4@CHWCHW5
Jul 12CLECLE6@CHWCHW2
Jul 13CLECLE6@CHWCHW5
Aug 8CLECLE9@CHWCHW5today
Aug 9CLECLE3@CHWCHW1
Aug 10CLECLE4@CHWCHW6
Sep 12CHWCHW0@CLECLE4
Sep 13CHWCHW1@CLECLE3
Sep 14CHWCHW2@CLECLE3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 1st Inning

CLECLE
K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

CHWCHW
C. Julks

C. Julks

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.333 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 6 K · 9 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat CHW 9-5.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 1st Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 76% WP

Santana · doubled to right, Schneemann scored and Ramírez scored, Manzardo to third.

CLETop 1st Inning · 5-0
+17pp→ 89% WP

Kayfus · doubled to right, Manzardo scored, Naylor scored and Santana scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE5013000009
CHW0010031005

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · CHW won 2

5
0

Inn 1

Kayfus 3

0
0

Inn 2

1
1

Inn 3

Santana 1

Baldwin 1

3
0

Inn 4

Kwan 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Mead 2

0
1

Inn 7

Amaya 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CLE
CHW

Play-by-play · 631 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  3. B9

    Montgomery flied out to right.

    · ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

    −0.5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  9. B9

    Amaya to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  10. B9

    Amaya to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  12. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Colson Montgomery

    · ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  13. B9

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  14. B9

    Amaya singled to center.

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  22. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Jacob Amaya

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  23. B9

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  24. B9

    Benintendi grounded out to first.

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

    −0.6pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  26. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  27. B9

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  28. B9

    Julks struck out looking.

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

    −1pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

  30. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 9·CHW 5

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

9

Runs

5

10

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

15

TB

16

0

HR

1

5

BB

5

9

K

11

13

LOB

20

Player projections

CHW vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Randal GrichukCHW
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    45.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.7%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.8%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 10 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 97
    286
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 96
    286
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    66
    4(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 93
    712
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 93
    18
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 92
    65
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs