MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11KC

69-65

121

CHW

48-85

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

10,598 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.0%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
43.4%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.6%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Sean BurkeCHW
5.4± 2.3low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.2± 0.8high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Braden MontgomeryCHW
2.3± 3.5low
Miguel VargasCHW
2.2± 3.0high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Braden MontgomeryCHW
1.0± 1.9low
Miguel VargasCHW
0.9± 1.3high
Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.6± 3.1low
Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHW

.694

OPS

.717

▶

.737

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.325

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.44

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.29

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.32

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 12 · CHW 1 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	0	0	8	3	0	1	0	12
CHW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. YastrzemskiLF	.260	5	3	2	3	1	1	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.298	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.262	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
M. Garcia3B	.297	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
S. PerezC	.246	4	2	2	3	1	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.302	5	1	3	1	0	0	0
J. India2B	.234	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Massey2B	.208	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.267	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
N. Loftin2B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. Tolbert2B	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Lynch IVRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. MaileC	.212	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		42	12	16	12	2	4	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.260

.298

.262

.297

.246

.302

.234

.208

.267

.200

.235

.000

.212

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. BergertSP	6.0	6	1	1	2	3	98
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
A. ZerpaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	7	1	1	3	5	140

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

140

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. TauchmanRF	.278	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Vargas3B	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. TeelC	.295	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Sosa2B	.270	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. BenintendiDH	.235	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
E. QueroC	.286	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.252	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. BaldwinLF	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TaylorRF	.203	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. RobertsonLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. LeeC	.281	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	1	7	1	1	3	5

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. CivaleSP	4.2	5	5	5	1	4	86
T. GilbertRP	0.1	6	6	6	1	0	22
M. VasilRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	32
K. LeeC	2.0	4	1	1	2	0	31
Team	9.0	16	12	12	4	5	171

Team

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.