MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2WSH

CIN

52-49

810

WSH

40-60

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

15,558 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
42.2%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.2%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.1%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.5medium
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

James WoodWSH
1.3± 1.1high
Daylen LileWSH
1.2± 1.3high
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

James WoodWSH
2.5± 2.5high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.1± 2.6high
Daylen LileWSH
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.0± 1.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.8high
Daylen LileWSH
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.1± 1.8low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

WSH

.705

OPS

.717

▶

.745

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.44

4.68

Team ERA

4.18

4.66

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.38

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

CIN 8 · WSH 10 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	2	8
WSH	4	0	3	1	0	2	0	0	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. FriedlCF	.267	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. McLain2B	.215	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. De La CruzSS	.279	2	3	0	0	0	3	0
A. HaysLF	.284	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
G. LuxLF	.265	5	1	2	2	0	0	1
S. SteerLF	.249	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
N. MarteRF	.277	5	1	2	2	0	0	1
J. FraleyRF	.254	2	0	2	1	0	1	0
J. TrevinoC	.267	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. BensonRF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JoeRF	.220	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	8	9	6	0	8	3

Player

AVG

RBI

.267

.215

.279

.284

.265

.249

.277

.254

.267

.222

.220

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. SingerSP	2.1	5	7	7	2	1	57
L. RichardsonRP	1.0	3	1	1	2	2	30
S. BarlowRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20
S. MollRP	1.1	1	1	1	1	2	29
G. AshcraftRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	9
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20
B. SuterRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	24
Team	8.0	15	10	10	8	8	189

Player

2.1

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

189

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. AbramsSS	.279	5	1	0	0	0	1	3
J. WoodRF	.275	4	2	2	1	0	2	0
J. BellDH	.223	5	2	2	1	1	1	0
N. LoweDH	.228	2	1	0	0	0	3	0
B. House3B	.279	4	2	3	1	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.232	4	1	2	3	0	0	1
A. Rosario3B	.271	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
R. AdamsC	.165	4	0	2	1	0	1	1
J. YoungCF	.249	5	0	3	2	0	0	0
A. CallLF	.275	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	10	15	10	1	8	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. IrvinSP	3.2	6	5	5	3	1	72
M. ThompsonRP	0.1	0	1	1	2	0	12
C. HenryRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	21
A. ChafinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
L. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
J. FerrerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
K. FinneganRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	24
Team	9.0	9	8	8	8	3	161

Team

CIN

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.