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FINAL+2CHW
CLE

CLE

61-56

4
6
CHW

CHW

43-75

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
19,750 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CLE 4 · CHW 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0001021004
CHW302001006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB·Sun, Aug 10·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Cleveland Guardians, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Lenyn Sosa

Lenyn Sosa

2B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE61-56
4
6
CHW43-75
CLE61-56·CHW43-75
CLE

CLE

61-56

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-44000010
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-55010003
SPRINT27.457
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-55000000
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
2-44222200
SPRINT25.411
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.765
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-33000010
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33010011
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-11000010
D. FryD. FryRF
1-11012000
SPRINT25.716
B. NaylorB. NaylorC
0-11000000
Team7-3535474246
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
3.0855142
K. AllardK. AllardRP
2.0311100
M. FestaM. FestaRP
2.0000010
C. HernandezC. HernandezRP
1.0000000
Team8.01166252
CHW

CHW

43-75

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
2-44120010
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
2-33123100
SPRINT26.941
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44010002
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT2993
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-33211110
SPRINT26.326
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44011002
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-44011001
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
0-33000000
J. RojasJ. Rojas★3B
2-44120000
M. TaylorM. TaylorRF
0-11000000
Team11-34346116225
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
5.0533321
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0100110
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0111011
C. BooserC. BooserRP
1.0000010
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0000010
Team9.0744462

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    68 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      57%·94.3 mph·12% whiff
    • CU
      18%·74.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Allard
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      50%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      16%·80.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      9%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      3%·69.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Festa
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      47%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      37%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Hernandez
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      78%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.9 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • D. Martin
    97 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.2 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      23%·90.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.7 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      4%·77.7 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      1%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • UN
      1%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      50%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Booser
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      63%·98.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      38%·85.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

11

4

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 5-2

Jul 10CLECLE0@CHWCHW0
Jul 11CLECLE4@CHWCHW2
Jul 12CLECLE4@CHWCHW5
Jul 12CLECLE6@CHWCHW2
Jul 13CLECLE6@CHWCHW5
Aug 8CLECLE9@CHWCHW5
Aug 9CLECLE3@CHWCHW1
Aug 10CLECLE4@CHWCHW6today

Season series

CLE leads series 8-2

Apr 8CHWCHW0@CLECLE1
Apr 9CHWCHW2@CLECLE3
Apr 10CHWCHW1@CLECLE6
Jul 10CLECLE0@CHWCHW0
Jul 11CLECLE4@CHWCHW2
Jul 12CLECLE4@CHWCHW5
Jul 12CLECLE6@CHWCHW2
Jul 13CLECLE6@CHWCHW5
Aug 8CLECLE9@CHWCHW5
Aug 9CLECLE3@CHWCHW1
Aug 10CLECLE4@CHWCHW6today
Sep 12CHWCHW0@CLECLE4
Sep 13CHWCHW1@CLECLE3
Sep 14CHWCHW2@CLECLE3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 6th Inning

CLECLE
K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
L. Sosa

L. Sosa

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHW beat CLE 6-4. Fry's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

CHW vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+16pp→ 74% WP

Sosa · homered to left (380 feet), Tauchman scored.

CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 79% WP

Montgomery · homered to right (452 feet).

CLETop 6th Inning · 3-5
+19pp→ 35% WP

Fry · doubled to left, Arias scored and Martínez scored, Rocchio to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0001021004
CHW30200100—6

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · CHW won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Sosa 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Mead 1

1
0

Inn 4

Manzardo 1

0
0

Inn 5

2
1

Inn 6

Fry 2

Sosa 1

1
0

Inn 7

Manzardo 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CLE
CHW

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  2. T9

    Ramírez grounded out to first.

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  6. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Jose Ramirez

    · ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  7. T9

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  8. T9

    Schneemann struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

    +2pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  13. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Daniel Schneemann

    · ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  14. T9

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  15. T9

    Kwan bunt grounded out to first.

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

    +4pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  17. T9

    Grant Taylor pitches to Steven Kwan

    · ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  18. T9

    G. Taylor relieved Booser

    · ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  21. B8

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  22. B8

    Tauchman grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  27. B8

    Carlos Hernandez pitches to Mike Tauchman

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  28. B8

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  29. B8

    Rojas grounded out to second.

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·CHW 6

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

4

Runs

6

7

Hits

11

0

Errors

1

15

TB

17

2

HR

2

4

BB

2

6

K

5

18

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 12 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993

Player projections

CHW vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Randal GrichukCHW
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    43.2%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.5%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    75
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    712
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 95
    70
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    281
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 94
    66
    4(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 94
    258
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
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