• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2ATL
MIA

MIA

57-60

6
8
ATL

ATL

50-67

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
35,433 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

MIA 6 · ATL 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0004002006
ATL000143008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 8, 25sim 97
    59
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 96
    286
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    66
    4(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 94
    65
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    712
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 93
    68
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ATL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.7± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    45.2%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.1%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.6%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Sat, Aug 9·Final/SeriesATL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Miami Marlins, 8–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee

CF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Marcell Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna

DH

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA57-60
6
8
ATL50-67
MIA57-60·ATL50-67
MIA

MIA

57-60

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-55022001
SPRINT2872
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-44000011
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-55110001
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-55220001
SPRINT28.381
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-22121020
SPRINT27.765
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-44012001
SPRINT28.483
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
1-44111002
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-11100020
D. HillD. Hill★RF
0-33000002
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
0-11000000
Team9-3434696059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
5.0755442
V. BellozoV. BellozoRP
2.0433200
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
1.0000020
Team8.01188662
ATL

ATL

50-67

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-33210021
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44111011
SPRINT25.513
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-55123002
SPRINT26.632
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
2-44224200
SPRINT25.614
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44010000
V. BrujanV. Brujan★SS
1-22110020
L. WilliamsL. Williams★SS
0-33100011
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
1-33010001
Team11-32328118266
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. FeddeE. Fedde★SP
5.0544440
A. BummerA. BummerRP
1.2211010
D. HernandezD. HernandezRP
0.1211110
A. CoxA. CoxRP
1.0000020
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000010
Team9.0966590

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

11

6

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 5-2

Apr 4MIAMIA0@ATLATL10
Apr 5MIAMIA4@ATLATL0
Apr 6MIAMIA0@ATLATL0
Aug 7MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 8MIAMIA5@ATLATL1
Aug 9MIAMIA1@ATLATL7
Aug 9MIAMIA6@ATLATL8today
Aug 10MIAMIA1@ATLATL7

Season series

ATL leads series 5-4

Apr 4MIAMIA0@ATLATL10
Apr 5MIAMIA4@ATLATL0
Apr 6MIAMIA0@ATLATL0
Jun 20ATLATL2@MIAMIA6
Jun 21ATLATL7@MIAMIA0
Jun 22ATLATL3@MIAMIA5
Aug 7MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 8MIAMIA5@ATLATL1
Aug 9MIAMIA1@ATLATL7
Aug 9MIAMIA6@ATLATL8today
Aug 10MIAMIA1@ATLATL7
Aug 25ATLATL1@MIAMIA2
Aug 26ATLATL11@MIAMIA2
Aug 27ATLATL12@MIAMIA1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 34pp · Bottom 5th Inning

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

ATLATL
M. Ozuna

M. Ozuna

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

E. Fedde

E. Fedde

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

ATL beat MIA 8-6. Ozuna's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Win probability

ATL vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 4th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 57% WP

Marsee · doubled to right, Lopez scored.

MIATop 4th Inning · 4-0
+17pp→ 82% WP

Edwards · singled to left, Wagaman scored and Pauley scored.

ATLBottom 5th Inning · 4-5
+34pp→ 77% WP

Ozuna · homered to left center (416 feet), Olson scored and Baldwin scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0004002006
ATL00014300—8

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · ATL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

4
1

Inn 4

Edwards 2

Ozuna 1

0
4

Inn 5

Ozuna 3

0
3

Inn 6

Baldwin 2

2
0

Inn 7

Hern 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
ATL

Play-by-play · 616 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  2. T9

    Lopez struck out looking.

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  12. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Otto Lopez

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  13. T9

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  14. T9

    Ramírez grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

    +3pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  16. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  17. T9

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  18. T9

    Stowers flied out to center.

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

    +3pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  20. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Kyle Stowers

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  21. T9

    Iglesias relieved Cox

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  24. B8

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  25. B8

    Baldwin struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  29. B8

    Josh Simpson pitches to Drake Baldwin

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

  30. B8

    ·

    MIA 6·ATL 8

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

6

Runs

8

9

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

10

TB

17

0

HR

2

5

BB

6

9

K

6

12

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872