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    SEA 18@TOR 23
    +9.9ppmedium
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FINAL+3SD
STL

STL

55-56

1
4
SD

SD

61-49

Petco Park · San Diego, California
44,933 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

STL 1 · SD 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000100001
SD000040004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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MLB·Fri, Aug 1·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off St. Louis Cardinals, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL55-56
1
4
SD61-49
STL55-56·SD61-49
STL

STL

55-56

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
0-44000000
SPRINT25.18
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-44000001
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-33000001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-33111100
SPRINT26.838
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT2872
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT257
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-33000001
Y. PozoY. Pozo★C
0-33000000
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.798
Team4-2929141106
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LiberatoreM. Liberatore★SP
4.1441210
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.2100020
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
1.0100010
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.0100000
Team8.0741240
SD

SD

61-49

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-33100010
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
2-44022001
SPRINT28.688
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44010000
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-44000001
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33100011
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
0-22100000
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
1-33111000
R. O'HearnR. O'HearnRF
0-11000000
Team7-3232473024
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. PivettaN. Pivetta★SP
7.0111051
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0200010
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0100000
Team9.0411061

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

1

Runs

4

3

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Aug 2STLSTL1@SDSD4today
Aug 3STLSTL8@SDSD5
Aug 3STLSTL3@SDSD7

Season series

SD leads series 3-2

Jul 24SDSD7@STLSTL9
Jul 25SDSD0@STLSTL3
Jul 26SDSD3@STLSTL1
Jul 27SDSD9@STLSTL2
Aug 2STLSTL1@SDSD4today
Aug 3STLSTL8@SDSD5
Aug 3STLSTL3@SDSD7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 5th Inning

STLSTL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

SDSD
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

N. Pivetta

N. Pivetta

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 1 H

How it ended

SD beat STL 4-1. Cronenworth's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

SD vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 5th Inning · 1-0
+18pp→ 60% WP

Contreras · homered to left center (398 feet).

SDBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+19pp→ 63% WP

Cronenworth · scored on throwing error by first baseman Contreras, Iglesias safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Gorman, Iglesias safe at second on error.

SDBottom 5th Inning · 1-4
+11pp→ 91% WP

Merrill · singled to center, Díaz scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000100001
SD00004000—4

Period scoring

STL won 0 · SD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
4

Inn 5

Contreras 1

Merrill 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

STL
SD

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  2. T9

    Herrera grounded into double play, third to second to first, Scott II out at second.

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  5. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Ivan Herrera

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  6. T9

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  7. T9

    Donovan flied out to left.

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

    +3pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  10. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Brendan Donovan

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  11. T9

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  12. T9

    Scott II singled to center.

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

    −4pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  20. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Victor Scott II

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  21. T9

    Suarez relieved Miller

    ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    STL 1·SD 4

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    STL 1·SD 4

  24. B8

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  25. B8

    O'Hearn lined out to center.

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  28. B8

    Ryan Fernandez pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  29. B8

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

  30. B8

    Cronenworth grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 4

    −0.6pp

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

1

Runs

4

4

Hits

7

3

Errors

0

7

TB

7

1

HR

0

0

BB

2

6

K

4

6

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    59.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.3%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    243
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 95
    15
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    293
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 95
    10
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    94
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    302
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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