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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8CIN
PHI

PHI

69-51

0
8
CIN

CIN

64-58

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
25,869 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

PHI 0 · CIN 8 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000000000
CIN000103408

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 11, 25sim 96
    224
    17(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    221
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    224
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    107
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    22
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 94
    223
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 13·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off Philadelphia Phillies, 8–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryson Stott

Bryson Stott

2B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI69-51
0
8
CIN64-58
PHI69-51·CIN64-58
PHI

PHI

69-51

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44010003
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000003
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-33000001
SPRINT28.381
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-44000002
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33000000
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-22000010
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.688
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-22000000
R. MarchanR. MarchanC
0-11000001
Team3-30300300110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
6.0743160
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
0.2344121
J. RossJ. RossRP
1.1000020
Team8.010872101
CIN

CIN

64-58

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-44110001
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-44000002
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
2-44220001
SPRINT2872
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
2-44124100
SPRINT26.530
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-33211011
SPRINT27.354
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
2-44122001
SPRINT28.992
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-44000002
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
0-44000002
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
2-22120010
SPRINT26.941
Team10-333381071210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. GreeneH. Greene★SP
6.0300060
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0000010
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
0.2000100
S. MollS. MollRP
0.1000010
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000020
Team9.03001100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    81 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      40%·86.2 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      37%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Romano
    30 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      70%·86.3 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.5 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Ross
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      33%·95.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      27%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·84.8 mph·— whiff

CIN

  • H. Greene
    85 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      51%·99.3 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      38%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      12%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      58%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·82.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      63%·89.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      38%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      44%·83.5 mph·25% whiff
  • S. Moll
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • ST
      80%·81.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      20%·91.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

10

0

Runs

8

2

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Aug 11PHIPHI4@CINCIN1
Aug 12PHIPHI1@CINCIN6
Aug 13PHIPHI0@CINCIN8today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Jul 4CINCIN9@PHIPHI6
Jul 5CINCIN1@PHIPHI5
Jul 6CINCIN1@PHIPHI3
Aug 11PHIPHI4@CINCIN1
Aug 12PHIPHI1@CINCIN6
Aug 13PHIPHI0@CINCIN8today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 5th Inning

PHIPHI
B. Stott

B. Stott

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

CINCIN
K. Hayes

K. Hayes

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

H. Greene

H. Greene

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

CIN beat PHI 8-0.

Win probability

CIN vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 5th Inning · 0-1
+15pp→ 69% WP

Marsh · grounded out to first.

CINBottom 6th Inning · 0-2
+12pp→ 85% WP

Hays · doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000000000
CIN00010340—8

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · CIN won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Marte 2

0
4

Inn 7

Andujar 4

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PHI
CIN

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  2. T9

    Castellanos flied out to right.

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  5. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Nick Castellanos

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  6. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  7. T9

    Marchán struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  11. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Rafael Marchan

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  12. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  13. T9

    Harper struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  18. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  19. T9

    Pagán relieved Moll

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  22. B8

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  23. B8

    Espinal struck out looking.

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  24. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  25. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  28. B8

    Joe Ross pitches to Santiago Espinal

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  29. B8

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

  30. B8

    Stephenson struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 0·CIN 8

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

0

Runs

8

3

Hits

10

2

Errors

0

4

TB

15

0

HR

1

1

BB

2

10

K

10

9

LOB

9

Player projections

CIN vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    48.1%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.8%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.6%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175