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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3PHI
PHI

PHI

69-49

4
1
CIN

CIN

62-58

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
43,800 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 4 · CIN 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000000404
CIN1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Player projections

CIN vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    47.8%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.3%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.3%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    220
    17(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    224
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    221
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 96
    21
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    252
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    223
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 11·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Edmundo Sosa

Edmundo Sosa

2B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI69-49
4
1
CIN62-58
PHI69-49·CIN62-58
PHI

PHI

69-49

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44111000
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44112101
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44010000
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-44000000
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44010001
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-33000002
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
2-33120000
SPRINT28.278
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-33111001
B. MarshB. MarshLF
0-11000000
Team8-3434484106
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WalkerT. Walker★SP
6.0611120
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
1.0000010
D. RobertsonD. RobertsonRP
1.0100110
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0000010
Team9.0711250
CIN

CIN

62-58

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.838
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-33000010
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-44000001
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-33010011
SPRINT26.530
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
3-44031000
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.992
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-44000001
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44000000
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
J. FraleyJ. FraleyRF
0-11000000
Team7-3434171025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
7.2633060
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
0.1111001
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0100000
Team9.0844061

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • T. Walker
    93 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      32%·87.5 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      26%·91.5 mph·8% whiff
    • FS
      19%·87.4 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      14%·81.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      5%·75.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      3%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • D. Robertson
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      53%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      18%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romano
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      70%·86.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.9 mph·100% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·96.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      30%·87.3 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    104 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.0 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      22%·85.4 mph·44% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.3 mph·46% whiff
    • CU
      11%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • ST
      44%·81.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      28%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Santillan
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SV
      75%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Aug 11PHIPHI4@CINCIN1today
Aug 12PHIPHI1@CINCIN6
Aug 13PHIPHI0@CINCIN8

Season series

PHI leads series 3-1

Jul 4CINCIN9@PHIPHI6
Jul 5CINCIN1@PHIPHI5
Jul 6CINCIN1@PHIPHI3
Aug 11PHIPHI4@CINCIN1today
Aug 12PHIPHI1@CINCIN6
Aug 13PHIPHI0@CINCIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 8th Inning

PHIPHI
E. Sosa

E. Sosa

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

CINCIN
G. Lux

G. Lux

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcher

7.2 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 6 H

How it ended

PHI beat CIN 4-1. Wilson's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 75% WP

Lux · singled to right, Friedl scored, Andujar to third.

CINTop 7th Inning · 0-1
+18pp→ 81% WP

Castellanos · flied into double play, right to catcher, Harper thrown out at home.

PHITop 8th Inning · 1-1
+27pp→ 44% WP

Wilson · doubled to left, Sosa scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000000404
CIN1000000001

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · CIN won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Lux 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

4
0

Inn 8

Schwarber 2

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
CIN

Play-by-play · 512 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  2. B9

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  3. B9

    Fraley lined out to third.

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  8. B9

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Jake Fraley

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  9. B9

    Fraley hit for Hayes

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  10. B9

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  11. B9

    McLain flied out to center.

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

    −1pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  15. B9

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Matt McLain

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  16. B9

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  17. B9

    Stephenson struck out looking.

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

    −2pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  21. B9

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  22. B9

    Kerkering relieved Robertson

    ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  25. T9

    · ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  26. T9

    Marsh grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

    +0.5pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 4·CIN 1

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

4

Runs

1

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

15

TB

8

1

HR

0

0

BB

2

6

K

5

9

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381