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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

69-50

5
4
LAD

LAD

68-50

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
41,557 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 5 · LAD 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR1000010215
LAD2100000104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    141
    19(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 96
    26
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    254
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 94
    147
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    104
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 93
    143
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 10·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Davis Schneider

Davis Schneider

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR69-50
5
4
LAD68-50
TOR69-50·LAD68-50
TOR

TOR

69-50

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-33000000
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44210011
SPRINT25.716
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44122101
SPRINT26.123
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-44111102
T. FranceT. France★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT24.74
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-22000021
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44111102
SPRINT27.354
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
1-22010001
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
1-22010011
A. KirkA. KirkC
0-22000001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-22000002
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
1-11010000
Team9-34345953414
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. LauerE. Lauer★SP
3.0633442
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.2200020
B. FisherB. FisherRP
0.1000110
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
0.2100110
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.1000000
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
0.2011210
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
0.2000500
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2000010
Team9.094413102
LAD

LAD

68-50

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-44121122
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
2-55020011
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-33000021
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-33113120
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-33010021
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33010020
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-33110001
SPRINT26.123
A. CallA. Call★LF
0-33000012
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
0-11000000
Team9-323249421310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
5.2422480
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.1000000
J. WrobleskiJ. WrobleskiSP
0.2100020
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
0.1000000
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0222022
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0211021
Team9.09554143

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • E. Lauer
    71 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      48%·91.9 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      34%·86.6 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      15%·74.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·85.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    33 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      64%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      9%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.2 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • KC
      43%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      36%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      4%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      52%·97.1 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      22%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Little
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      58%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      42%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      50%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·82.6 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      55%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      36%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·94.1 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.6 mph·100% whiff

LAD

  • T. Glasnow
    86 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.6 mph·39% whiff
    • CU
      27%·82.5 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.8 mph·67% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      35%·85.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      24%·91.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      24%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.4 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      82%·92.4 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wrobleski
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      18%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·81.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      75%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Casparius
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • ST
      100%·83.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

9

5

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Aug 9TORTOR1@LADLAD5
Aug 10TORTOR1@LADLAD9
Aug 10TORTOR5@LADLAD4today

Season series

LAD win series 2-1

Aug 9TORTOR1@LADLAD5
Aug 10TORTOR1@LADLAD9
Aug 10TORTOR5@LADLAD4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 35pp · Top 9th Inning

TORTOR
D. Schneider

D. Schneider

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

TOR beat LAD 5-4. Clement's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (35pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 8th Inning · 4-3
+26pp→ 66% WP

Barger · homered to right center (410 feet).

TORTop 9th Inning · 5-4
+35pp→ 80% WP

Clement · homered to left center (395 feet).

TORBottom 9th Inning · 5-4
+29pp→ 73% WP

Ohtani · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR1000010215
LAD2100000104

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · LAD won 2

1
2

Inn 1

Jr. 1

Ohtani 1

0
1

Inn 2

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

France 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
1

Inn 8

Jr. 1

Freeman 1

1
0

Inn 9

Clement 1

TOR
LAD

Play-by-play · 671 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  3. B9

    Betts grounded into fielder's choice to third, Call out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

    −27pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  7. B9

    Mason Fluharty pitches to Mookie Betts

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  8. B9

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  9. B9

    Ohtani struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

    −29pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  19. B9

    Mason Fluharty pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  20. B9

    Fluharty relieved Hoffman

    ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  21. B9

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  22. B9

    Call walked.

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

    +3pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  27. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Alex Call

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  28. B9

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

  29. B9

    Freeland hit sacrifice bunt to third, Muncy to second, Pages to third.

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

    +2pp

  30. B9

    · ·

    TOR 5·LAD 4

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

5

Runs

4

9

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

20

TB

17

3

HR

2

4

BB

13

14

K

10

13

LOB

29

Player projections

LAD vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    52.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.3%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175