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FINAL+4SD
BOS

BOS

65-54

2
6
SD

SD

66-52

Petco Park · San Diego, California
43,323 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

BOS 2 · SD 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000002002
SD002012106

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 10·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Boston Red Sox, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS65-54
2
6
SD66-52
BOS65-54·SD66-52
BOS

BOS

65-54

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-33010012
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-33000011
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-33100011
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT27.969
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-33000001
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-44011000
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-44020002
SPRINT2872
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000002
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-22000001
A. ToroA. Toro1B
0-11000001
Team5-31312510313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
5.2655370
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
0.1000110
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0211010
I. CampbellI. CampbellRP
1.0100110
Team8.09665100
SD

SD

66-52

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-33221011
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-44022000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44110001
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-33001002
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44111002
SPRINT27.148
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-33000010
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-33000012
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-22111021
SPRINT28.891
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
2-44120001
SPRINT26.838
Team9-30306960510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
6.0422270
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
0.2100020
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
0.2000110
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.2000030
Team9.05223130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • B. Bello
    106 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      31%·94.2 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      22%·87.3 mph·27% whiff
    • ST
      21%·84.6 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.0 mph·83% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      32%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • I. Campbell
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      39%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Murphy
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·75.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.8 mph·— whiff

SD

  • D. Cease
    89 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      38%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.6 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      13%·81.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Adam
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      41%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·83.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.2 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      9%·77.0 mph·— whiff
  • D. Morgan
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      42%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·97.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      21%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      5%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      69%·97.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

2

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Aug 9BOSBOS10@SDSD2
Aug 10BOSBOS4@SDSD5
Aug 10BOSBOS2@SDSD6today

Season series

SD wins series 2-1

Aug 9BOSBOS10@SDSD2
Aug 10BOSBOS4@SDSD5
Aug 10BOSBOS2@SDSD6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

BOSBOS
W. Abreu

W. Abreu

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat BOS 6-2. Arraez's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

SD vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 52% WP

Arraez · grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Tatis Jr. out at second.

SDBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+24pp→ 76% WP

Arraez · doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored and Fermin scored.

BOSTop 7th Inning · 2-5
+9pp→ 27% WP

Abreu · singled to right, González to second, Yoshida to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000002002
SD00201210—6

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · SD won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Arraez 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Jr. 1

0
2

Inn 6

Bogaerts 1

2
1

Inn 7

Gonz 2

O'Hearn 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
SD

Play-by-play · 571 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  2. T9

    Rafaela struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  8. T9

    David Morgan pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  9. T9

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  10. T9

    Abreu struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  16. T9

    David Morgan pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  17. T9

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  18. T9

    González grounded out to second.

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

    +0.8pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  21. T9

    David Morgan pitches to Romy Gonzalez

    ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 2·SD 6

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 2·SD 6

  24. B8

    · ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  25. B8

    Tatis Jr. struck out looking.

    · ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·SD 6

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

SD

Home

2

Runs

6

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

5

TB

11

0

HR

0

3

BB

5

13

K

10

20

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

SD vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.7± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    49.2%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.8%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.1%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 97
    141
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 97
    24
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    21
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    210
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    22
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    141
    19(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs