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FINAL+1PHI
BOS

BOS

54-48

2
3
PHI

PHI

57-43

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
42,843 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

BOS 2 · PHI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
BOS10000100002
PHI00020000013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 21·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Boston Red Sox, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Edmundo Sosa

Edmundo Sosa

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
BOS54-48
2
3
PHI57-43
BOS54-48·PHI57-43
BOS

BOS

54-48

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44111102
SPRINT29.294
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-55110000
SPRINT25.818
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-55010004
SPRINT27.457
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-44021001
SPRINT27.969
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44000002
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-44020001
SPRINT28.790
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-22000002
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-33000012
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
1-22010010
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez1B
0-22000001
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-11000001
Team8-36362821216
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
7.0621140
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0100010
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0000030
Team9.0731380
PHI

PHI

57-43

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-33000010
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000001
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT2744
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-44111001
SPRINT27.148
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44011002
SPRINT28.381
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44110003
SPRINT28.175
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-33000010
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
1-33010010
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-22000000
E. SosaE. Sosa2B
1-11011000
SPRINT28.278
Team7-3232373038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. WheelerZ. Wheeler★SP
6.07220101
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0000120
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0100010
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0000110
M. LazarM. LazarRP
1.0000020
Team10.08222161

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • W. Buehler
    89 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      34%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      19%·78.2 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      11%·94.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      3%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      57%·98.9 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      13%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      9%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      54%·86.0 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      23%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·99.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·85.9 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • Z. Wheeler
    105 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      34%·96.2 mph·26% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.0 mph·9% whiff
    • ST
      17%·83.2 mph·80% whiff
    • CU
      13%·81.3 mph·57% whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·87.9 mph·25% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      47%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·81.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      18%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      44%·88.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.8 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      60%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.2 mph·— whiff
  • M. Lazar
    10 pitches·60% CSW
    • FF
      60%·94.8 mph·67% whiff
    • KC
      30%·80.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      10%·85.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Jul 21BOSBOS2@PHIPHI3today
Jul 22BOSBOS1@PHIPHI4
Jul 23BOSBOS9@PHIPHI8

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Jul 21BOSBOS2@PHIPHI3today
Jul 22BOSBOS1@PHIPHI4
Jul 23BOSBOS9@PHIPHI8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 3rd Inning

BOSBOS
J. Duran

J. Duran

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
E. Sosa

E. Sosa

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

6.0 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 7 H

How it ended

PHI beat BOS 3-2.

Win probability

PHI vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 53% WP

Toro · doubled to left.

PHIBottom 8th Inning · 2-2
+13pp→ 69% WP

Sosa · singled to center.

PHITop 10th Inning · 2-2
+13pp→ 80% WP

Anthony · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
BOS10000100002
PHI00020000013

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · PHI won 2

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Castellanos 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Story 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
1

Inn 10

Sosa 1

BOS
PHI

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 3

  2. B10

    Sosa reached first base on catcher's interference, Marsh scored, Kepler to second, Kemp to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 3

    +8pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 3

  4. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  5. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  6. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  7. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  8. B10

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Edmundo Sosa

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 3

  9. B10

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  10. B10

    Kepler intentionally walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

    +12pp

  11. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  12. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  13. B10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  14. B10

    Kemp to second on wild pitch by Hicks, Marsh to third on wild pitch by Hicks.

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  15. B10

    Kemp to second on wild pitch by Hicks, Marsh to third on wild pitch by Hicks.

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  16. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  17. B10

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Max Kepler

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  18. B10

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  19. B10

    Kemp walked.

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

    +0.6pp

  20. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  21. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  22. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  23. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  24. B10

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Otto Kemp

    ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  25. B10

    Hicks relieved Whitlock

    ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  26. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  27. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  28. T10

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

  29. T10

    Anthony struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

    +13pp

  30. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·PHI 2

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

2

Runs

3

8

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

13

TB

9

1

HR

0

2

BB

3

16

K

8

15

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.9%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    51.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.5%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 22, 25sim 98
    21
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    192
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    250
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    223
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    252
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    210
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs