MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIL

NYM

63-53

MIL

71-44

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

43,469 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.9%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
66.1%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.8%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
67.3%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.6± 3.1low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.4± 5.2low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.7low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.6± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.2± 0.8high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
3.2± 3.5high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.3± 2.6high
Jake BauersMIL
2.1± 2.3high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.1± 1.6high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 1.5high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.9± 2.0high

Earned runs

Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0low
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.7± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

MIL

.665

OPS

.717

▶

.734

.294

OBP

.319

▶

.340

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

3.85

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.45

1.27

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

9.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

NYM 2 · MIL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
MIL	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. LindorSS	.247	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. SotoLF	.249	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NimmoRF	.252	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
S. MarteRF	.274	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.253	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.242	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. MauricioSS	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. MullinsCF	.059	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	2	5	2	2	3	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.247

.249

.262

.252

.274

.253

.242

.227

.059

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. SengaSP	4.1	2	3	1	3	2	79
B. RaleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
R. StanekRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	5
G. SotoRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	26
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	21
Team	8.0	4	3	1	5	7	149

Player

4.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

149

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. FrelickRF	.295	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. ContrerasC	.249	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
I. CollinsLF	.290	2	0	0	1	0	1	2
C. YelichDH	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Vaughn1B	.358	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. PerkinsCF	.276	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Turang2B	.276	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
C. Durbin3B	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. OrtizSS	.218	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		29	3	4	3	1	5	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. WoodruffSP	7.0	3	2	2	2	8	79
A. UribeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	15
T. MegillRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	5	2	2	3	10	107

Team

NYM

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIL vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIL vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.