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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TEX
ATL

ATL

44-58

3
8
TEX

TEX

54-50

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
34,643 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

ATL 3 · TEX 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0000001023
TEX110110048

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Jul 25·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Atlanta Braves, 8–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Jonah Heim

Jonah Heim

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL44-58
3
8
TEX54-50
ATL44-58·TEX54-50
ATL

ATL

44-58

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-33011021
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-44001011
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44010013
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44010001
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44000001
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-33000011
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
1-44110001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-33221110
SPRINT27.148
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-33000002
Team6-32323631711
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WentzJ. Wentz★RP
4.1443161
A. BummerA. BummerRP
0.2100100
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0000110
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.1244210
H. StrattonH. StrattonRP
0.2100100
Team8.0887681
TEX

TEX

54-50

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
2-44121002
SPRINT28.278
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-33000020
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33101010
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT26.735
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33110011
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-33111012
SPRINT2872
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-33212110
SPRINT25.18
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-33001001
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
1-22110000
E. CarterE. CarterCF
1-22011000
Team8-3030888168
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. EovaldiN. Eovaldi★SP
5.0300470
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0000010
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
0.1111101
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.1000020
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
0.1000000
C. BoushleyC. BoushleyRP
0.1222200
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.2000010
Team9.06337111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • E. De Los Santos
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      100%·94.9 mph·50% whiff

TEX

  • S. Armstrong
    35 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      34%·93.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      29%·89.9 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Latz
    20 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      40%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      35%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

3

Runs

8

1

Errors

1

Current series

TEX wins series 3-0

Jul 26ATLATL3@TEXTEX8today
Jul 26ATLATL5@TEXTEX6
Jul 27ATLATL1@TEXTEX8

Season series

TEX leads series 1-0

Jul 26ATLATL3@TEXTEX8today
Jul 26ATLATL5@TEXTEX6
Jul 27ATLATL1@TEXTEX8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 7pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

J. Wentz

J. Wentz

RP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
J. Heim

J. Heim

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

N. Eovaldi

N. Eovaldi

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

TEX beat ATL 8-3.

Win probability

TEX vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 75% WP

Haggerty · singled to right.

TEXBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 84% WP

Heim · homered to left (391 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0000001023
TEX11011004—8

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · TEX won 5

0
1

Inn 1

Semien 1

0
1

Inn 2

Heim 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Langford 1

0
1

Inn 5

Haggerty 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

II 1

0
4

Inn 8

Heim 1

2

Inn 9

Profar 1

ATL
TEX

Play-by-play · 601 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  2. T9

    Acuña Jr. struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

    +0.5pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  8. T9

    Olson to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  9. T9

    Olson to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  11. T9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Ronald Acuna Jr.

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  12. T9

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  13. T9

    Olson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Harris II scored, Profar out at second, Williams to third.

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

    +1pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATL 2·TEX 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 2·TEX 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 2·TEX 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 2·TEX 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 2·TEX 8

  20. T9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Matt Olson

    · ·

    ATL 3·TEX 8

  21. T9

    R. Garcia relieved Boushley

    · ·

    ATL 2·TEX 8

  22. T9

    · ·

    ATL 2·TEX 8

  23. T9

    Profar singled to right, Murphy scored, Williams to second, Harris II to third.

    · ·

    ATL 2·TEX 8

    −0.9pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 2·TEX 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  26. T9

    Caleb Boushley pitches to Jurickson Profar

    · ·

    ATL 2·TEX 8

  27. T9

    Williams ran for Ozuna

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  28. T9

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  29. T9

    Ozuna walked, Harris II to second, Murphy to third.

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  30. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

3

Runs

8

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

10

TB

13

1

HR

1

7

BB

6

11

K

8

22

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.8%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    62.4%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.9%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.7%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 6, 25sim 98
    43
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 98
    155
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    204
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    201
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 95
    46
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 94
    112
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs