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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3HOU
WSH

WSH

44-63

4
7
HOU

HOU

61-47

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
35,741 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

WSH 4 · HOU 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0020001104
HOU100113107

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    153
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    155
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 97
    43
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    201
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 96
    112
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 95
    46
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 29·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Washington Nationals, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yainer Diaz

Yainer Diaz

C

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH44-63
4
7
HOU61-47
WSH44-63·HOU61-47
WSH

WSH

44-63

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
3-44130011
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-55011003
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
2-55122101
SPRINT26.735
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-22100021
SPRINT25.18
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-44010001
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-44010001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44121001
SPRINT29.395
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-44000001
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-44000004
Team10-363641041314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. SorokaM. Soroka★SP
3.1422041
C. HenryC. HenryRP
0.2000110
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
0.2111100
A. LaraA. LaraSP
1.2744110
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.2100010
Team8.01377371
HOU

HOU

61-47

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
0-44101010
SPRINT2744
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-55011000
SPRINT27.867
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-44222000
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-44011012
J. MeltonJ. Melton★LF
0-22000001
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
3-44231100
SPRINT25.513
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
3-33130010
SPRINT26.428
S. WhitcombS. Whitcomb★3B
1-44110001
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
1-33010002
C. HummelC. HummelLF
1-22011001
C. McCormickC. McCormickLF
0-11000000
Team13-36367137137
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AlexanderJ. Alexander★RP
4.2522261
B. SousaB. SousaRP
1.1000020
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0311010
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0211120
J. HaderJ. HaderRP
1.0000030
Team9.010443141

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Henry
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FC
      38%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.8 mph·0% whiff

HOU

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

13

4

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Jul 29WSHWSH2@HOUHOU1
Jul 30WSHWSH4@HOUHOU7today
Jul 30WSHWSH1@HOUHOU9

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 29WSHWSH2@HOUHOU1
Jul 30WSHWSH4@HOUHOU7today
Jul 30WSHWSH1@HOUHOU9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 3rd Inning

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.550 OPS

M. Soroka

M. Soroka

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H

HOUHOU
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

J. Alexander

J. Alexander

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

HOU beat WSH 7-4. Garc's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

HOU vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 51% WP

Garc · ía Jr. homered to right (370 feet), Abrams scored.

HOUBottom 4th Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 61% WP

Diaz · homered to right center (393 feet).

HOUBottom 5th Inning · 2-3
+13pp→ 78% WP

Hummel · singled to center, Walker scored, Smith to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0020001104
HOU10011310—7

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · HOU won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Garc 2

0
1

Inn 4

Diaz 1

0
1

Inn 5

Hummel 1

0
3

Inn 6

Walker 2

1
1

Inn 7

Wood 1

Trammell 1

1
0

Inn 8

Lile 1

0

Inn 9

WSH
HOU

Play-by-play · 617 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  2. T9

    García Jr. struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

    +0.5pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  8. T9

    Josh Hader pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  9. T9

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  10. T9

    Wood struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

    +1pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  16. T9

    Josh Hader pitches to James Wood

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  17. T9

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  18. T9

    Abrams struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

    +1pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  22. T9

    Josh Hader pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  23. T9

    Hader relieved Abreu

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  26. B8

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  27. B8

    McCormick grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·HOU 7

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

4

Runs

7

10

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

15

TB

17

1

HR

1

3

BB

3

14

K

7

17

LOB

21

Player projections

HOU vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    62.5%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.2%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.8%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872