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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8HOU
WSH

WSH

44-64

1
9
HOU

HOU

62-47

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
31,357 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

WSH 1 · HOU 9 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0100000001
HOU130005009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Jul 30·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Washington Nationals, 9–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jose Altuve

Jose Altuve

2B

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH44-64
1
9
HOU62-47
WSH44-64·HOU62-47
WSH

WSH

44-64

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-33000011
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000001
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
2-33120011
SPRINT25.18
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT25.411
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
0-33000011
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-22001010
SPRINT29.395
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-33000000
Team5-3030151049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
5.1866142
C. HenryC. HenryRP
0.2233101
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0000020
Z. BrzykcyZ. BrzykcyRP
1.0000010
Team8.01099273
HOU

HOU

62-47

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
4-44343100
SPRINT27.867
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-44123101
SPRINT25.513
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000001
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-33011002
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-44000001
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-33210010
SPRINT26.428
C. HummelC. Hummel★LF
1-33112101
C. McCormickC. McCormick★LF
0-44000001
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
1-33210010
T. TrammellT. TrammellCF
0-11000000
Team10-32329109327
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. GustoR. Gusto★SP
6.0411150
H. NerisH. NerisRP
1.0100110
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0000020
L. ContrerasL. ContrerasRP
1.0000210
Team9.0511490

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Gore
    97 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.9 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      33%·80.9 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.6 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      4%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      61%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • Z. Brzykcy
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      27%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      20%·85.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Henry
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FC
      38%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.8 mph·0% whiff

HOU

  • R. Gusto
    102 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.4 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      18%·79.5 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      12%·81.7 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      10%·88.0 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      9%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Contreras
    29 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      59%·89.5 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      21%·78.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·82.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      7%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Neris
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      58%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      26%·83.3 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.5 mph·— whiff
  • S. Okert
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      64%·80.9 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      36%·91.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

1

Runs

9

2

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Jul 29WSHWSH2@HOUHOU1
Jul 30WSHWSH4@HOUHOU7
Jul 30WSHWSH1@HOUHOU9today

Season series

HOU wins series 2-1

Jul 29WSHWSH2@HOUHOU1
Jul 30WSHWSH4@HOUHOU7
Jul 30WSHWSH1@HOUHOU9today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 25pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

WSHWSH
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
J. Altuve

J. Altuve

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

R. Gusto

R. Gusto

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat WSH 9-1. Altuve's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

HOU vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 54% WP

Wood · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Abrams out at second.

WSHTop 2nd Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 51% WP

Lowe · singled to right, Bell to third.

HOUBottom 2nd Inning · 1-4
+25pp→ 83% WP

Altuve · homered to left (362 feet), Dubón scored and Short scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0100000001
HOU13000500—9

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · HOU won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Smith 1

1
3

Inn 2

Lile 1

Altuve 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
5

Inn 6

Diaz 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

WSH
HOU

Play-by-play · 568 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  2. T9

    Millas grounded out to second.

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  9. T9

    Luis Contreras pitches to Drew Millas

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  10. T9

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  11. T9

    Lile flied out to left.

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  18. T9

    Luis Contreras pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  19. T9

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  20. T9

    DeJong walked, Bell to second.

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  27. T9

    Luis Contreras pitches to Paul DeJong

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  28. T9

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  29. T9

    Lowe struck out swinging.

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 1·HOU 9

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

1

Runs

9

5

Hits

10

2

Errors

0

5

TB

19

0

HR

3

4

BB

2

9

K

7

15

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

HOU vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    63.4%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.7%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    204
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    155
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    151
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    153
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    112
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    43
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs