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FINAL+1TEX
ATL

ATL

44-59

5
6
TEX

TEX

55-50

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
38,318 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

ATL 5 · TEX 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
ATL11010100105
TEX02200000116

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Atlanta Braves, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Josh Jung

Josh Jung

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
ATL44-59
5
6
TEX55-50
ATL44-59·TEX55-50
ATL

ATL

44-59

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-44111010
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44010011
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-55000000
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44010011
SPRINT26.632
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44000014
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-33111011
SPRINT27.354
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000002
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
4-44342100
SPRINT27.148
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-33000001
Team8-35355851510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. HolmesG. Holmes★SP
4.0644220
D. DunningD. DunningRP
2.0000040
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0000010
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0000020
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0111100
Team9.0865490
TEX

TEX

55-50

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-55100001
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-33110020
SPRINT24.96
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44111000
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-33112012
SPRINT26.735
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-44111001
SPRINT28.175
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-44000002
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-44010002
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-33021010
SPRINT25.920
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-44011001
Team8-3434686049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. RockerK. Rocker★SP
4.0533350
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
1.0100200
J. GrayJ. GrayRP
3.0111031
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
2.0111020
Team10.08555101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • G. Holmes
    81 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      36%·85.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.2 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      20%·82.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      20%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·90.1 mph·— whiff
  • D. Dunning
    23 pitches·43% CSW
    • FC
      48%·88.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      22%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      9%·80.2 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      55%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      35%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      71%·85.5 mph·80% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • P. Johnson
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      90%·85.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.8 mph·— whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      100%·94.9 mph·50% whiff

TEX

  • K. Rocker
    95 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      33%·95.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.7 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.9 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.3 mph·29% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    35 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      34%·93.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      29%·89.9 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Gray
    29 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      45%·86.8 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      3%·76.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Latz
    20 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      40%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      35%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

5

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 3-0

Jul 26ATLATL3@TEXTEX8
Jul 26ATLATL5@TEXTEX6today
Jul 27ATLATL1@TEXTEX8

Season series

TEX leads series 2-0

Jul 26ATLATL3@TEXTEX8
Jul 26ATLATL5@TEXTEX6today
Jul 27ATLATL1@TEXTEX8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 51pp · Bottom 9th Inning

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

G. Holmes

G. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

TEXTEX
J. Jung

J. Jung

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

K. Rocker

K. Rocker

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TEX beat ATL 6-5. Heim's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (51pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 5th Inning · 3-4
+21pp→ 73% WP

Albies · grounded into double play, third to first, Baldwin out at third.

ATLTop 9th Inning · 4-4
+27pp→ 75% WP

Harris II · tripled to left.

TEXBottom 9th Inning · 5-5
+51pp→ 70% WP

Heim · doubled to right, Haggerty scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
ATL11010100105
TEX02200000116

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

5

Runs

6

8

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

17

TB

11

1

HR

0

5

BB

4

10

K

9

17

LOB

13

Win probability

TEX vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · TEX won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Albies 1

1
2

Inn 2

Profar 1

Carter 1

0
2

Inn 3

Garc 2

1
0

Inn 4

II 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

II 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Murphy 1

Heim 1

0
1

Inn 10

Semien 1

ATL
TEX

Play-by-play · 636 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 6

  2. B10

    Semien singled to left, Smith scored, Seager to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 6

    +18pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 6

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 6

  5. B10

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Marcus Semien

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 6

  6. B10

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  7. B10

    Seager intentionally walked.

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

    −0.8pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  9. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  10. B10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  11. B10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  12. B10

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Corey Seager

    ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  13. B10

    De Los Santos relieved Iglesias

    ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  14. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  15. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  16. T10

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  17. T10

    Riley struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

    +10pp

  18. T10

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  19. T10

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  20. T10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  21. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  22. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  23. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  24. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  25. T10

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Austin Riley

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  26. T10

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  27. T10

    Baldwin grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

    +19pp

  28. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  29. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

  30. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 5·TEX 5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 98
    153
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    204
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    201
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    151
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    43
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 95
    46
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TEX vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.2%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    63.4%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.3%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.6%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872