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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5SEA
CHW

CHW

42-71

3
8
SEA

SEA

61-53

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
30,686 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

CHW 3 · SEA 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW1000000023
SEA010203208

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 98
    153
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    204
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    96
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    155
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 95
    201
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 95
    46
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 5·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Chicago White Sox, 8–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Lenyn Sosa

Lenyn Sosa

2B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW42-71
3
8
SEA61-53
CHW42-71·SEA61-53
CHW

CHW

42-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-33000013
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44111100
SPRINT26.941
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33000001
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44111101
SPRINT2993
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT26.326
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-44010002
SPRINT24.12
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-44010001
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
0-33000001
J. RojasJ. Rojas★3B
0-22000010
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11000000
Team5-32323533210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
5.0765252
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
1.0000100
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0422021
M. VasilM. VasilRP
1.0000110
Team8.01187483
SEA

SEA

61-53

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33000000
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-55000003
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-55120000
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-33322110
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33212112
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-44122001
SPRINT25.310
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
2-33121110
SPRINT25.920
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000002
C. YoungC. Young★2B
2-33021000
M. MastrobuoniM. Mastrobuoni3B
0-11000000
Team11-34348118348
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
7.0211091
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
1.0100200
J. KowarJ. KowarRP
1.0222012
Team9.05332103

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

11

3

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 3-0

Aug 6CHWCHW3@SEASEA8today
Aug 7CHWCHW6@SEASEA8
Aug 7CHWCHW3@SEASEA4

Season series

SEA leads series 3-1

May 19SEASEA5@CHWCHW1
May 20SEASEA0@CHWCHW1
May 21SEASEA6@CHWCHW5
Aug 6CHWCHW3@SEASEA8today
Aug 7CHWCHW6@SEASEA8
Aug 7CHWCHW3@SEASEA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CHWCHW
L. Sosa

L. Sosa

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 2 H

How it ended

SEA beat CHW 8-3.

Win probability

SEA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 35% WP

Sosa · homered to left center (392 feet).

SEABottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 72% WP

Canzone · homered to right center (405 feet).

SEABottom 4th Inning · 1-3
+14pp→ 89% WP

Suárez homered to left (390 feet), Naylor scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW1000000023
SEA01020320—8

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · SEA won 4

1
0

Inn 1

Sosa 1

0
1

Inn 2

Canzone 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Polanco 2

0
2

Inn 7

Naylor 2

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Jr. 1

CHW
SEA

Play-by-play · 571 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  2. T9

    Teel struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  9. T9

    Jackson Kowar pitches to Kyle Teel

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  10. T9

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  11. T9

    Quero flied out to left.

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  18. T9

    Jackson Kowar pitches to Edgar Quero

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  19. T9

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  20. T9

    Montgomery homered to right (411 feet).

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 8

  25. T9

    Jackson Kowar pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 8

  26. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 8

  27. T9

    Robert Jr. homered to right (357 feet).

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 1·SEA 8

  30. T9

    Jackson Kowar pitches to Luis Robert Jr.

    ·

    CHW 2·SEA 8

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

3

Runs

8

5

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

16

TB

21

3

HR

3

2

BB

4

10

K

8

6

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

SEA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.2%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    61.9%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.