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FINAL+3MIN
MIN

MIN

53-60

6
3
DET

DET

66-49

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
26,313 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 6 · DET 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN3001200006
DET0010000203

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 5·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Luke Keaschall

Luke Keaschall

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Matt Vierling

Matt Vierling

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN53-60
6
3
DET66-49
MIN53-60·DET66-49
MIN

MIN

53-60

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-44000000
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-33100020
SPRINT2622
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
2-55221002
SPRINT26.326
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
3-44131000
SPRINT27.457
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-44123100
SPRINT28.688
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-33000010
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
2-44121100
SPRINT26.632
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-33000010
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-33000010
Team9-3333696252
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. MatthewsZ. Matthews★SP
5.0511160
M. TonkinM. TonkinRP
1.2100010
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.1000000
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0322020
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0000010
Team9.09331100
DET

DET

66-49

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-33110001
SPRINT28.381
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT28.483
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-44021001
SPRINT26.735
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-33010012
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
1-44012000
SPRINT28.278
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-44010001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-44000002
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-33000000
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-22000000
D. DinglerD. DinglerC
0-11000000
Team9-36363930110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PaddackC. Paddack★SP
4.0644002
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.0222100
T. MeltonT. MeltonSP
2.0000210
L. JacksonL. JacksonRP
2.0100210
Team9.0966522

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • Z. Matthews
    86 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      37%·96.5 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.7 mph·45% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·88.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      2%·81.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Tonkin
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      56%·92.0 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      30%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      15%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • FS
      36%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      28%·90.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      24%·95.6 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Topa
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • CH
      100%·88.9 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • C. Paddack
    57 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.5 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Melton
    37 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      49%·97.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      11%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Jackson
    34 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      59%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Montero
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      55%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      32%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

9

6

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 27MINMIN4@DETDET1
Jun 28MINMIN5@DETDET10
Jun 29MINMIN0@DETDET3
Aug 4MINMIN3@DETDET6
Aug 5MINMIN6@DETDET3today
Aug 6MINMIN9@DETDET4

Season series

DET leads series 5-3

Apr 12DETDET7@MINMIN6
Apr 12DETDET4@MINMIN0
Apr 13DETDET1@MINMIN5
Jun 27MINMIN4@DETDET1
Jun 28MINMIN5@DETDET10
Jun 29MINMIN0@DETDET3
Aug 4MINMIN3@DETDET6
Aug 5MINMIN6@DETDET3today
Aug 6MINMIN9@DETDET4
Aug 14DETDET4@MINMIN3
Aug 16DETDET7@MINMIN0
Aug 16DETDET8@MINMIN5
Aug 17DETDET1@MINMIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 1st Inning

MINMIN
L. Keaschall

L. Keaschall

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

Z. Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

DETDET
M. Vierling

M. Vierling

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 H

How it ended

MIN beat DET 6-3. Keaschall's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+18pp→ 62% WP

Keaschall · homered to left center (402 feet), Clemens scored.

DETBottom 3rd Inning · 3-1
+11pp→ 41% WP

Carpenter · doubled to center, Keith scored.

MINTop 4th Inning · 4-1
+12pp→ 73% WP

Larnach · homered to right center (409 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN3001200006
DET0010000203

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · DET won 2

3
0

Inn 1

Keaschall 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Carpenter 1

1
0

Inn 4

Larnach 1

2
0

Inn 5

Jeffers 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Jones 2

0
0

Inn 9

MIN
DET

Play-by-play · 587 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 6·DET 3

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  3. B9

    Ibáñez grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  13. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Andy Ibanez

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  14. B9

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  15. B9

    Dingler grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

    −1pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  18. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Dillon Dingler

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  19. B9

    Dingler hit for Rogers

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  20. B9

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  21. B9

    Báez struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

    −2pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  26. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Javier Baez

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  27. B9

    Topa relieved Sands

    ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIN 6·DET 3

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIN 6·DET 3

  30. T9

    · ·

    MIN 6·DET 3

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

DET

Home

6

Runs

3

9

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

19

TB

14

2

HR

0

5

BB

1

2

K

10

15

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    60.9%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.2%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.7%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 4, 25sim 98
    93
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 98
    292
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 97
    264
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    43
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    117
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 95
    112
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs