• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3DET
MIN

MIN

52-60

3
6
DET

DET

66-48

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
24,018 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

MIN 3 · DET 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1000110003
DET000023106

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 30, 25sim 99
    292
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 98
    96
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 97
    264
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    99
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 95
    112
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    243
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 4·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Minnesota Twins, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Matt Wallner

Matt Wallner

RF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Wenceel Perez

Wenceel Perez

RF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN52-60
3
6
DET66-48
MIN52-60·DET66-48
MIN

MIN

52-60

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-44000000
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-22111111
SPRINT2622
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-44111102
SPRINT26.326
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33111101
SPRINT26.632
A. RodenA. Roden★LF
0-33000002
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-33000000
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-33010001
Team6-3030363318
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. AdamsT. Adams★RP
5.0422071
N. DavisN. DavisRP
1.0533111
E. RamirezE. RamirezRP
2.0311011
Team8.01266193
DET

DET

66-48

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44101001
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-44122102
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44010003
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-22112111
SPRINT27.969
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
2-33020001
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-33111100
SPRINT27.765
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33110000
Team12-31316126319
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
6.0433043
B. HurterB. HurterRP
1.1100010
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
0.2000110
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0100020
Team9.0633183

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • T. Adams
    63 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      30%·94.9 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.7 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Davis
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      39%·95.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      29%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·79.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Ramirez
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • FC
      58%·88.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      21%·83.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      11%·88.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·89.5 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    67 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      46%·93.8 mph·15% whiff
    • FS
      21%·88.1 mph·63% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      13%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      79%·86.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hurter
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      54%·81.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      46%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      46%·86.8 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

12

3

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 27MINMIN4@DETDET1
Jun 28MINMIN5@DETDET10
Jun 29MINMIN0@DETDET3
Aug 4MINMIN3@DETDET6today
Aug 5MINMIN6@DETDET3
Aug 6MINMIN9@DETDET4

Season series

DET leads series 5-2

Apr 12DETDET7@MINMIN6
Apr 12DETDET4@MINMIN0
Apr 13DETDET1@MINMIN5
Jun 27MINMIN4@DETDET1
Jun 28MINMIN5@DETDET10
Jun 29MINMIN0@DETDET3
Aug 4MINMIN3@DETDET6today
Aug 5MINMIN6@DETDET3
Aug 6MINMIN9@DETDET4
Aug 14DETDET4@MINMIN3
Aug 16DETDET7@MINMIN0
Aug 16DETDET8@MINMIN5
Aug 17DETDET1@MINMIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 5th Inning

MINMIN
M. Wallner

M. Wallner

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

T. Adams

T. Adams

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 4 H

DETDET
W. Perez

W. Perez

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 4 H

How it ended

DET beat MIN 6-3. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 5th inning (27pp).

Win probability

DET vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 5th Inning · 2-2
+27pp→ 66% WP

Pérez homered to right (372 feet), Torkelson scored.

MINTop 6th Inning · 3-2
+17pp→ 52% WP

Wallner · homered to center (437 feet).

DETBottom 6th Inning · 3-5
+21pp→ 88% WP

Carpenter · homered to right (437 feet), Torres scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1000110003
DET00002310—6

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · DET won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Jeffers 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
2

Inn 5

Larnach 1

1
3

Inn 6

Wallner 1

Carpenter 2

0
1

Inn 7

Dingler 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIN
DET

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  2. T9

    Roden struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

    +0.8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  6. T9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Alan Roden

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  7. T9

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  8. T9

    Larnach struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

    +2pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  12. T9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Trevor Larnach

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  13. T9

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  14. T9

    Lewis singled to left.

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

    −2pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  18. T9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  19. T9

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  20. T9

    Clemens grounded out to first.

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

    +1pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  25. T9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Kody Clemens

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  26. T9

    Finnegan relieved Kahnle

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 3·DET 6

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIN 3·DET 6

  29. B8

    ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

  30. B8

    Torkelson grounded into double play, third to second to first, Carpenter out at second.

    · ·

    MIN 3·DET 6

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

DET

Home

3

Runs

6

6

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

15

TB

22

3

HR

3

1

BB

1

8

K

9

9

LOB

7

Player projections

DET vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.2%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    59.9%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.3%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.7%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381