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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SF
SF

SF

55-55

4
3
NYM

NYM

62-48

Citi Field · Queens, New York
42,777 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 4 · NYM 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
SF02000010014
NYM00000012003

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 4, 25sim 97
    93
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 97
    96
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    292
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 95
    15
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 95
    35
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 95
    242
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 1·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into New York Mets and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Dominic Smith

Dominic Smith

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
SF55-55
4
3
NYM62-48
SF55-55·NYM62-48
SF

SF

55-55

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44010012
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-55010004
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-55100001
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44100011
W. FloresW. Flores★1B
2-33120010
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44011010
SPRINT2872
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-55111000
SPRINT27.148
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
1-33010001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
2-44021000
SPRINT24.32
D. SmithD. SmithDH
1-11011000
SPRINT25.716
G. McCrayG. McCrayCF
0-22000002
Team10-404041040411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
7.0411161
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
0.1222100
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
0.2000100
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.0000000
R. RodríguezR. RodríguezRP
1.0000110
Team10.0633471
NYM

NYM

62-48

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-44100011
SPRINT28.278
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-33112112
SPRINT25.29
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
0-33000001
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT25.513
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-33010010
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-44010001
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-33000000
R. MauricioR. MauricioSS
0-11000011
B. BatyB. Baty3B
0-11000000
C. MullinsC. MullinsCF
0-11000000
Team6-3434363147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
6.0422240
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0211120
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0100010
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0200030
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0110110
Team10.010434110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • R. Ray
    102 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·92.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.1 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.0 mph·60% whiff
    • KC
      11%·78.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·80.1 mph·25% whiff
  • R. Rodríguez
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      69%·97.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      55%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·77.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Butto
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.4 mph·— whiff
  • R. Walker
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      86%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    97 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      33%·91.2 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      29%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·76.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      61%·98.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      13%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Diaz
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      63%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      37%·89.2 mph·67% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      41%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    16 pitches·63% CSW
    • FF
      56%·100.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      44%·89.7 mph·71% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Aug 1SFSF4@NYMNYM3today
Aug 2SFSF6@NYMNYM12
Aug 3SFSF12@NYMNYM4

Season series

NYM lead series 3-1

Jul 26NYMNYM8@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM2@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM5@SFSF3
Aug 1SFSF4@NYMNYM3today
Aug 2SFSF6@NYMNYM12
Aug 3SFSF12@NYMNYM4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 25pp · Bottom 10th Inning

SFSF
D. Smith

D. Smith

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SF beat NYM 4-3. Mauricio's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

NYM vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+22pp→ 48% WP

J. Soto · singled to left, Nimmo scored, Lindor to third.

SFBottom 10th Inning · 4-3
+16pp→ 73% WP

Nimmo · popped out to second.

SFBottom 10th Inning · 4-3
+25pp→ 100% WP

Mauricio · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
SF02000010014
NYM00000012003

Period scoring

SF won 2 · NYM won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Schmitt 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Bailey 1

Alonso 1

0
2

Inn 8

Soto 1

0
0

Inn 9

1
0

Inn 10

Smith 1

SF
NYM

Play-by-play · 640 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    SF 4·NYM 3

  2. B10

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  3. B10

    Mauricio struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

    −25pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  5. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  6. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  7. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  8. B10

    Randy Rodriguez pitches to Ronny Mauricio

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  9. B10

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  10. B10

    Alonso walked, Lindor to second, Mullins to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

    +8pp

  11. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  12. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  13. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  14. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  15. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  16. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  17. B10

    Randy Rodriguez pitches to Pete Alonso

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  18. B10

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  19. B10

    J. Soto flied out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

    −17pp

  20. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  21. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  22. B10

    Randy Rodriguez pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  23. B10

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  24. B10

    Lindor hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

    +8pp

  25. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  26. B10

    Randy Rodriguez pitches to Francisco Lindor

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  27. B10

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  28. B10

    Nimmo popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

    −16pp

  29. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

  30. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·NYM 3

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

4

Runs

3

10

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

13

TB

10

0

HR

1

4

BB

4

11

K

7

25

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.4%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    60.4%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.6%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.