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FINAL+5DET
ARI

ARI

51-58

2
7
DET

DET

64-46

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
29,033 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

ARI 2 · DET 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0001000012
DET001033007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 4, 25sim 99
    93
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 98
    96
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 96
    264
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 96
    112
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    99
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 94
    95
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 30·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 7–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Geraldo Perdomo

Geraldo Perdomo

SS

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI51-58
2
7
DET64-46
ARI51-58·DET64-46
ARI

ARI

51-58

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT29.496
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT26.225
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
3-44132100
SPRINT26.838
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.818
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-44000000
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-22000011
T. EnglishT. English★OF
1-33010000
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-33000002
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
0-33000001
Team6-3131262116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
5.1641081
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
0.2433001
A. SaalfrankA. SaalfrankRP
2.0100120
Team8.011741102
DET

DET

64-46

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
3-33231000
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44000002
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-33123110
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000002
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44110000
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-44111002
SPRINT26.941
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-44000003
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
1-44212101
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
1-22010000
Team11-363671172110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PaddackC. Paddack★SP
6.0311050
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
2.0100100
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.0211011
Team9.0622161

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • R. Nelson
    92 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.4 mph·56% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      2%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Saalfrank
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      54%·89.1 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      46%·79.8 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Backhus
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      58%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      42%·77.7 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • C. Paddack
    84 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.8 mph·12% whiff
    • CH
      26%·84.7 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      13%·77.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      12%·87.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      56%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      82%·87.0 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

11

2

Runs

7

2

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Jul 28ARIARI1@DETDET5
Jul 29ARIARI2@DETDET12
Jul 30ARIARI2@DETDET7today

Season series

DET wins series 3-0

Jul 28ARIARI1@DETDET5
Jul 29ARIARI2@DETDET12
Jul 30ARIARI2@DETDET7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 5th Inning

ARIARI
G. Perdomo

G. Perdomo

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 6 H

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H

How it ended

DET beat ARI 7-2.

Win probability

DET vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 59% WP

Keith · singled to right.

DETBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 67% WP

Carpenter · tripled to right, Keith scored.

DETBottom 5th Inning · 1-4
+17pp→ 89% WP

Carpenter · homered to right (406 feet), Keith scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0001000012
DET00103300—7

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · DET won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Carpenter 1

1
0

Inn 4

Perdomo 1

0
3

Inn 5

Carpenter 2

0
3

Inn 6

Rogers 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Perdomo 1

ARI
DET

Play-by-play · 514 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  2. T9

    Gurriel Jr. grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  10. T9

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

    · ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  11. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  12. T9

    Suárez doubled to left.

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  15. T9

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  16. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  17. T9

    Perdomo homered to right (387 feet).

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

  23. T9

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    ·

    ARI 2·DET 7

  24. T9

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

  25. T9

    Marte lined out to center.

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

  30. T9

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Ketel Marte

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 7

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

DET

Home

2

Runs

7

6

Hits

11

2

Errors

0

11

TB

21

1

HR

2

1

BB

1

6

K

10

7

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

DET vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.5± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    59.9%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.