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FINAL+3LAA
CHW

CHW

42-70

5
8
LAA

LAA

54-58

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
30,963 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

CHW 5 · LAA 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW4010000005
LAA0000032038

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    236
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    296
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 95
    112
    5(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 94
    297
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 93
    268
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 93
    1111
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 3·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Chicago White Sox, 8–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Colson Montgomery

Colson Montgomery

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW42-70
5
8
LAA54-58
CHW42-70·LAA54-58
CHW

CHW

42-70

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-33000021
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44210010
SPRINT26.941
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33100011
SPRINT26.632
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
2-44121000
SPRINT2993
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-44124102
SPRINT26.326
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-44010000
K. TeelK. Teel★C
0-44000000
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
3-44030000
J. RojasJ. Rojas★3B
1-44010000
Team10-34345105144
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
5.0533271
M. VasilM. VasilRP
2.0322120
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
1.1100000
Team8.11188492
LAA

LAA

54-58

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
2-55123100
SPRINT27.148
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-44220010
SPRINT25.920
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-33210022
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
2-55124102
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000002
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-44000001
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
1-33110010
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-22000002
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada3B
1-11010000
G. CamperoG. CamperoOF
0-11100000
Team11-36368117249
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. KochanowiczJ. Kochanowicz★SP
6.0955221
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
1.0000110
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
1.0000010
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0100100
Team9.01055441

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Burke
    84 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.1 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.5 mph·47% whiff
    • KC
      14%·79.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • M. Vasil
    32 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      44%·81.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      44%·95.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      9%·95.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      79%·81.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      14%·82.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • ST
      45%·79.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      27%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·91.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·90.6 mph·0% whiff

LAA

  • J. Kochanowicz
    80 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.2 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      28%·90.6 mph·21% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      3%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      89%·94.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chafin
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      58%·79.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Detmers
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      45%·89.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      36%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      18%·76.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

5

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Aug 2CHWCHW6@LAALAA3
Aug 3CHWCHW1@LAALAA0
Aug 3CHWCHW5@LAALAA8today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Mar 27LAALAA1@CHWCHW8
Mar 29LAALAA1@CHWCHW0
Mar 30LAALAA3@CHWCHW2
Aug 2CHWCHW6@LAALAA3
Aug 3CHWCHW1@LAALAA0
Aug 3CHWCHW5@LAALAA8today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 9th Inning

CHWCHW
C. Montgomery

C. Montgomery

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
Y. Moncada

Y. Moncada

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Kochanowicz

J. Kochanowicz

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAA beat CHW 8-5. Ward's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

LAA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 1st Inning · 4-0
+19pp→ 84% WP

Montgomery · homered to right (376 feet), Benintendi scored and Robert Jr. scored.

LAABottom 7th Inning · 5-5
+27pp→ 73% WP

Neto · doubled to center, Campero scored and Moore scored.

LAABottom 9th Inning · 5-8
+29pp→ 100% WP

Ward · homered to left center (397 feet), Schanuel scored and Trout scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW4010000005
LAA0000032038

Period scoring

CHW won 2 · LAA won 3

4
0

Inn 1

Montgomery 3

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Montgomery 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Neto 1

0
2

Inn 7

Neto 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
3

Inn 9

Ward 3

CHW
LAA

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 8

  2. B9

    Ward homered to left center (397 feet), Schanuel scored and Trout scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 8

    +29pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 8

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  9. B9

    Tyler Alexander pitches to Taylor Ward

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 8

  10. B9

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  11. B9

    Trout intentionally walked.

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  16. B9

    Tyler Alexander pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  17. B9

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  18. B9

    Schanuel doubled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

    +12pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  24. B9

    Tyler Alexander pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  25. B9

    Alexander relieved Wilson

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  26. B9

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  27. B9

    Neto flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

    +5pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 5·LAA 5

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

5

Runs

8

10

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

14

TB

20

1

HR

2

4

BB

4

4

K

9

12

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

LAA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · LAA favored

  • Elo Static

    55.7%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.7%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.2%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.