• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1PIT
PIT

PIT

45-62

6
5
SF

SF

54-53

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
35,572 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 6 · SF 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1300002006
SF1201000015

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 28·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Willy Adames

Willy Adames

SS

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT45-62
6
5
SF54-53
PIT45-62·SF54-53
PIT

PIT

45-62

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
2-44121011
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-55112101
SPRINT27.662
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-55121101
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44010001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-44000001
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
0-22100010
L. PegueroL. Peguero★SS
1-22110010
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000012
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-44112001
SPRINT27.560
J. SuwinskiJ. SuwinskiRF
0-11000000
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz1B
1-11010000
Team9-3535696248
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
2.0533330
G. CabreraG. CabreraRP
1.2111020
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
2.1100210
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000020
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0100000
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0311000
Team9.01155580
SF

SF

54-53

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-55220000
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-33000021
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
3-55132000
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT28.175
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-33011021
SPRINT27.148
W. FloresW. Flores★1B
1-55010001
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-44100012
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
2-44120001
SPRINT24.32
B. WiselyB. Wisely★2B
1-44011001
Team11-37375115058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. WhisenhuntC. Whisenhunt★SP
5.0544231
C. SeymourC. SeymourRP
3.0422231
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000020
Team9.0966482

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • D. Santana
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      67%·85.6 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.7 mph·— whiff

SF

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

11

6

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 3-0

Jul 29PITPIT6@SFSF5today
Jul 30PITPIT3@SFSF1
Jul 30PITPIT2@SFSF1

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Jul 29PITPIT6@SFSF5today
Jul 30PITPIT3@SFSF1
Jul 30PITPIT2@SFSF1
Aug 4SFSF4@PITPIT5
Aug 5SFSF8@PITPIT1
Aug 6SFSF4@PITPIT2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 31pp · Top 7th Inning

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

2.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

SFSF
W. Adames

W. Adames

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

C. Whisenhunt

C. Whisenhunt

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat SF 6-5. McCutchen's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 2nd Inning · 3-1
+22pp→ 71% WP

Kiner-Falefa · doubled to center, Peguero scored and Canario scored.

PITTop 7th Inning · 6-4
+31pp→ 79% WP

McCutchen · homered to left (383 feet), Pham scored.

PITBottom 9th Inning · 6-5
+15pp→ 100% WP

Bailey · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1300002006
SF1201000015

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · SF won 2

1
1

Inn 1

Gonzales 1

Chapman 1

3
2

Inn 2

Kiner-Falefa 2

Wisely 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Adames 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

McCutchen 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Lee 1

PIT
SF

Play-by-play · 633 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 6·SF 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  3. B9

    Bailey grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

    −15pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  7. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Patrick Bailey

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  8. B9

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  9. B9

    Yastrzemski popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

    −15pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  17. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  18. B9

    Matos ran for Flores

    ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  19. B9

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  20. B9

    Flores singled to left, Lee to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

    +10pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  26. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Wilmer Flores

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  27. B9

    ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  28. B9

    Lee singled to left, Adames scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

    +7pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 5

  30. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 6·SF 4

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

SF

Home

6

Runs

5

9

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

17

TB

16

2

HR

0

4

BB

5

8

K

8

14

LOB

28

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 10 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SF vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.4%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    55.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.9%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    296
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    268
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 96
    247
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    45
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 96
    112
    5(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    307
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs