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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6CLE
ATH

ATH

42-59

2
8
CLE

CLE

48-50

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
25,855 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

ATH 2 · CLE 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0000100102
CLE110300128

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 3, 25sim 97
    297
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    296
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    236
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    45
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 94
    268
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    46
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Jul 20·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Athletics, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Angel Martinez

Angel Martinez

LF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH42-59
2
8
CLE48-50
ATH42-59·CLE48-50
ATH

ATH

42-59

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-44000004
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-44000000
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
2-33021011
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-44000004
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44010002
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
G. UrshelaG. Urshela★3B
0-44000001
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
2-44020000
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
1-33110001
SPRINT28.586
Team7-34342710114
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SpringsJ. Springs★SP
4.0955040
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0000000
O. BidoO. BidoRP
3.0333111
Team8.01288151
CLE

CLE

48-50

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
3-55232101
SPRINT27.765
D. FryD. Fry★RF
2-55024000
SPRINT25.716
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000001
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
1-44010000
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
0-33100011
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★RF
1-22010001
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
2-33220000
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
1-33111001
SPRINT24.43
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33111000
SPRINT27.354
D. SchneemannD. SchneemannCF
1-22110000
Team12-34348128115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
7.04111110
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0211020
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0100010
Team9.07221140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Springs
    83 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      35%·90.5 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      34%·78.5 mph·47% whiff
    • FC
      14%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.0 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      8%·75.7 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Bido
    41 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      24%·84.1 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      5%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • M. Kelly
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.7 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      33%·84.1 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • G. Williams
    96 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      23%·82.4 mph·78% whiff
    • ST
      23%·86.2 mph·55% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.9 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      18%·91.5 mph·18% whiff
    • FF
      16%·95.9 mph·29% whiff
  • C. Smith
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      69%·96.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      31%·89.5 mph·60% whiff
  • J. Junis
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      53%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

12

2

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Jul 18ATHATH6@CLECLE8
Jul 19ATHATH8@CLECLE2
Jul 20ATHATH2@CLECLE8today

Season series

CLE wins series 4-2

Jun 21CLECLE1@ATHATH5
Jun 22CLECLE4@ATHATH2
Jun 22CLECLE3@ATHATH0
Jul 18ATHATH6@CLECLE8
Jul 19ATHATH8@CLECLE2
Jul 20ATHATH2@CLECLE8today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 4th Inning

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

J. Springs

J. Springs

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 9 H

CLECLE
A. Martinez

A. Martinez

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CLE beat ATH 8-2.

Win probability

CLE vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 73% WP

Fry · singled to left, Martínez scored.

CLEBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+6pp→ 82% WP

Hedges · singled to left, Wilson scored.

CLEBottom 4th Inning · 0-5
+11pp→ 96% WP

Fry · doubled to left, Rocchio scored, Wilson scored and Hedges scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0000100102
CLE11030012—8

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · CLE won 5

0
1

Inn 1

Fry 1

0
1

Inn 2

Hedges 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Fry 3

1
0

Inn 5

Butler 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Mart 1

1
2

Inn 8

Kurtz 1

Rocchio 1

0

Inn 9

ATH
CLE

Play-by-play · 531 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  2. T9

    Schuemann flied out to center.

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  9. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Max Schuemann

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  10. T9

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  11. T9

    Urshela struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  15. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Gio Urshela

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  16. T9

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  17. T9

    Soderstrom grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  21. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Tyler Soderstrom

    · ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  22. T9

    ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  23. T9

    Langeliers doubled to right.

    ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  27. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Shea Langeliers

    ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  28. T9

    Junis relieved Smith

    ·

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATH 2·CLE 8

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATH 2·CLE 8

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

2

Runs

8

7

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

11

TB

19

0

HR

1

1

BB

1

14

K

5

16

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 10 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

CLE vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.5± 1.0high
  • Jonah HeimATH
    0.5± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    56.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.6%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.7%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.