MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5ARI

ARI

52-59

ATH

49-64

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,687 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.3%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.7%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael SorokaARI
5.3± 2.8low
Gage JumpATH
4.8± 1.7low
J.T. GinnATH
4.8± 3.0medium

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.3± 1.0high
Zack GelofATH
1.3± 0.7high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Nick KurtzATH
3.0± 3.3high
Zack GelofATH
2.5± 2.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.2± 3.0high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 1.6high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Zack GelofATH
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Luis MoralesATH
5.0± 0.3low
Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.1low
Zac GallenARI
3.3± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

ATH

.686

OPS

.717

▶

.751

.305

OBP

.319

▶

.331

4.16

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.60

4.21

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.81

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 7 · ATH 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	1	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	1	7
ATH	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.247	3	2	1	1	1	2	0
K. Marte2B	.288	4	1	2	2	1	1	0
G. PerdomoSS	.274	2	1	0	0	0	3	0
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.247	5	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.222	4	0	0	1	0	0	3
T. Locklear1B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McCannC	.265	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. ThomasCF	.250	3	2	2	1	1	1	1
B. Alexander3B	.211	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
Team		32	7	7	7	3	8	7

Player

.247

.288

.274

.247

.222

.000

.265

.250

.211

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. GallenSP	6.0	9	2	2	0	3	89
A. SaalfrankRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
K. GravemanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
K. GinkelRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20
Team	9.0	10	2	2	0	5	128

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ButlerRF	.234	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Kurtz1B	.305	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. RookerDH	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. LangeliersC	.262	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
T. SoderstromLF	.257	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
G. Urshela3B	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. CortesRF	.333	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
M. SchuemannSS	.220	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. HernaizSS	.357	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.190	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	2	10	2	0	0	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. GinnSP	4.1	4	4	4	5	2	85
J. SternerRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	3	25
B. BowdenRP	1.1	0	1	0	1	0	24
E. NunezRP	1.2	2	1	1	2	1	34
M. KellyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
Team	9.0	7	7	6	8	7	174

Team

ARI

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

ATH vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.