MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3KC

56-56

TOR

65-48

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,461 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
60.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.2%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.7%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.4medium
Trey YesavageTOR
5.2± 2.2low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 0.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Ernie ClementTOR
2.0± 2.3high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.9± 2.9high
Alejandro KirkTOR
1.8± 2.5low

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
0.8± 1.3low
Alejandro KirkTOR
0.7± 1.1low

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TOR

.694

OPS

.717

▶

.703

.316

OBP

.319

.315

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.07

4.44

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.12

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 7 · TOR 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
KC	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	7
TOR	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	4

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. India2B	.240	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.285	4	2	1	0	0	1	2
V. Pasquantino1B	.264	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
M. Garcia3B	.297	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
S. PerezC	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.125	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.229	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RaveRF	.173	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.260	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
T. Tolbert2B	.240	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
N. Loftin2B	.207	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukRF	.200	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	7	6	6	0	4	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.240

.285

.264

.297

.256

.125

.229

.173

.260

.240

.207

.200

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. LugoSP	4.2	4	2	2	4	3	91
J. SchreiberRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	12
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
L. ErcegRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20
H. HarveyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
C. EstevezRP	1.0	2	2	1	1	1	29
Team	10.0	8	4	3	6	8	179

Player

4.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

179

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. LukesRF	.250	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.375	5	0	2	1	0	0	3
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.289	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Bichette3B	.297	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
A. BargerRF	.260	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
A. KirkC	.301	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.194	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
E. Clement2B	.280	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
M. StrawRF	.254	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		35	4	8	4	0	6	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. BassittSP	6.0	1	1	1	3	5	91
B. LittleRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
L. VarlandRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	10
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	6
S. DominguezRP	0.0	2	5	3	1	0	12
T. NanceRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	10.0	6	7	5	4	6	138

Team

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.