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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CHW
CHW

CHW

41-69

6
3
LAA

LAA

53-57

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
29,937 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 6 · LAA 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAA +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0201010116
LAA0000201003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    297
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    95
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    94
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    207
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 94
    112
    5(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 93
    156
    7(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 1·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Lenyn Sosa

Lenyn Sosa

2B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Gustavo Campero

Gustavo Campero

OF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW41-69
6
3
LAA53-57
CHW41-69·LAA53-57
CHW

CHW

41-69

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
1-44010011
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-55010001
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-55120000
SPRINT28.381
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
2-55121100
SPRINT26.632
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-33111001
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
2-33122111
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44111102
SPRINT26.326
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
0-44000001
J. RojasJ. Rojas★3B
1-44111100
Team11-37376116427
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. SmithS. Smith★SP
4.1222441
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.2000040
D. AltavillaD. AltavillaRP
0.1111100
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
0.2100000
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
2.0000030
Team9.04335111
LAA

LAA

53-57

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-22001011
SPRINT27.148
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-44020002
SPRINT25.920
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33000011
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000002
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-33000011
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44110001
SPRINT27.251
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-22100011
SPRINT27.148
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-33000012
G. CamperoG. Campero★OF
1-22112100
Team4-27273431511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. AndersonT. Anderson★SP
6.0544253
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
1.0200000
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0211010
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.0211011
Team9.01166274

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • J. Leasure
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SL
      67%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.3 mph·0% whiff

LAA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

4

6

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Aug 2CHWCHW6@LAALAA3today
Aug 3CHWCHW1@LAALAA0
Aug 3CHWCHW5@LAALAA8

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Mar 27LAALAA1@CHWCHW8
Mar 29LAALAA1@CHWCHW0
Mar 30LAALAA3@CHWCHW2
Aug 2CHWCHW6@LAALAA3today
Aug 3CHWCHW1@LAALAA0
Aug 3CHWCHW5@LAALAA8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 5th Inning

CHWCHW
L. Sosa

L. Sosa

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

S. Smith

S. Smith

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

LAALAA
G. Campero

G. Campero

OF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

T. Anderson

T. Anderson

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat LAA 6-3. Campero's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+17pp→ 51% WP

Benintendi · homered to right (375 feet).

LAABottom 5th Inning · 3-2
+21pp→ 43% WP

Campero · homered to center (438 feet), Rengifo scored.

CHWTop 6th Inning · 4-2
+15pp→ 72% WP

Montgomery · homered to center (433 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0201010116
LAA0000201003

Period scoring

CHW won 5 · LAA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Benintendi 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Jr. 1

0
2

Inn 5

Campero 2

1
0

Inn 6

Montgomery 1

0
1

Inn 7

Neto 1

1
0

Inn 8

Sosa 1

1
0

Inn 9

Rojas 1

CHW
LAA

Play-by-play · 573 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  2. B9

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  3. B9

    d'Arnaud struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  10. B9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Travis d'Arnaud

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  11. B9

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  12. B9

    Rengifo struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

    −1pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  19. B9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Luis Rengifo

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  20. B9

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  21. B9

    O'Hoppe struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

    −2pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  26. B9

    Steven Wilson pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  29. T9

    · ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

  30. T9

    Benintendi flied out to left.

    · ·

    CHW 6·LAA 3

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

6

Runs

3

11

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

24

TB

7

4

HR

1

2

BB

5

7

K

11

17

LOB

9

Player projections

LAA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · LAA favored

  • Elo Static

    58.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.6%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.9%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381