MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

MIN

52-59

CLE

56-55

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

29,240 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.8%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
58.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.8%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.2%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
6.1± 3.0low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.0± 0.7high
Royce LewisMIN
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.9± 2.8high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.2± 2.4high
Royce LewisMIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 0.9high
Josh BellMIN
0.7± 0.9high
Kody ClemensMIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

CLE

.718

OPS

◀

.717

.689

.318

OBP

.319

.317

4.63

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

4.86

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.75

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 5 · CLE 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5
CLE	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
A. MartinRF	.400	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. JeffersC	.254	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. WallnerRF	.215	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
R. Lewis3B	.249	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.228	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. LarnachLF	.242	3	0	1	2	0	1	1
C. VazquezC	.177	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Julien2B	.190	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.110	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. RodenLF	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Fitzgerald3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	8	5	0	3	12

Player

AVG

RBI

.400

.254

.215

.249

.228

.247

.242

.177

.190

.110

.100

.000

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. UrenaRP	4.0	5	2	2	1	3	69
K. FunderburkRP	2.0	3	0	0	0	2	35
J. TopaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
C. SandsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	21
M. TonkinRP	0.1	2	2	2	1	0	14
E. RamirezRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	10	4	4	3	9	163

Player

4.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

163

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.281	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.233	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.302	4	1	2	2	1	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.235	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. NaylorC	.181	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.236	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
N. JonesRF	.216	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. KayfusLF	.125	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. RocchioSS	.223	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
Team		36	4	10	4	1	3	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. CantilloSP	5.2	6	4	4	2	9	91
J. JunisRP	2.1	2	1	1	0	3	35
C. HernandezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
Team	9.0	8	5	5	3	12	142

Team

MIN

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.