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FINAL+3KC
ATL

ATL

45-61

6
9
KC

KC

53-55

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
22,562 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

ATL 6 · KC 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0000031206
KC130005009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 28, 25sim 95
    1510
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 94
    1511
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 93
    46
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 92
    1111
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 92
    155
    21(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 91
    45
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 29·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Atlanta Braves, 9–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Eli White

Eli White

CF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
MJ Melendez

MJ Melendez

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL45-61
6
9
KC53-55
ATL45-61·KC53-55
ATL

ATL

45-61

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-44110010
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-55021001
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-22000010
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
1-55111102
SPRINT27.765
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
3-55130000
SPRINT27.148
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
2-44123110
SPRINT25.614
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-55010001
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-44120011
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-22000012
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
2-22121000
SPRINT30.499+
S. MurphyS. MurphyC
0-11000000
L. WilliamsL. WilliamsSS
0-11000000
Team14-40406146257
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. FeddeE. Fedde★SP
4.2544231
A. BummerA. BummerRP
0.2222110
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.2433100
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.0100100
Team8.01299541
KC

KC

53-55

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-44112000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-44122012
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
3-55132100
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44010001
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44010001
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
2-44220000
SPRINT26.225
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-33100010
JJ. Rave★RF
0-00000020
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-44213000
SPRINT26.941
M. MelendezM. MelendezDH
1-11010000
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-11100010
Team12-34349129154
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
5.2733452
H. HarveyH. HarveyRP
0.1000000
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0311010
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
0.1222100
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.2100010
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0100000
Team9.01466572

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • E. Fedde
    78 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      36%·92.9 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      35%·90.2 mph·19% whiff
    • ST
      26%·83.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    38 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.7 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      37%·95.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bummer
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      43%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Montero
    16 pitches·6% CSW
    • FS
      75%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.0 mph·50% whiff

KC

  • S. Lugo
    92 pitches·25% CSW
    • CU
      23%·78.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      15%·82.1 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      13%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·90.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CS
      5%·71.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      1%·83.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      1%·80.5 mph·— whiff
  • C. Estevez
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      45%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      40%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      56%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.6 mph·— whiff
  • H. Harvey
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • CU
      57%·82.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      43%·96.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

12

6

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Jul 28ATLATL10@KCKC7
Jul 29ATLATL6@KCKC9today
Jul 30ATLATL0@KCKC1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 28ATLATL10@KCKC7
Jul 29ATLATL6@KCKC9today
Jul 30ATLATL0@KCKC1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 6th Inning

ATLATL
E. White

E. White

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

E. Fedde

E. Fedde

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

KCKC
M. Melendez

M. Melendez

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

How it ended

KC beat ATL 9-6.

Win probability

KC vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+14pp→ 86% WP

India · doubled to left, Frazier scored and Isbel scored.

ATLTop 6th Inning · 3-4
+17pp→ 27% WP

Ozuna · homered to left center (399 feet), Harris II scored.

KCBottom 6th Inning · 3-7
+15pp→ 96% WP

Isbel · doubled to left, Frazier scored, Grichuk scored and Fermin scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0000031206
KC13000500—9

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · KC won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Pasquantino 1

0
3

Inn 2

India 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

3
5

Inn 6

Ozuna 2

Isbel 3

1
0

Inn 7

Ozuna 1

2
0

Inn 8

Olson 1

0

Inn 9

ATL
KC

Play-by-play · 632 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  2. T9

    Williams lined out to third.

    · ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  5. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Luke Williams

    · ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  6. T9

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  7. T9

    Albies singled to left.

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

    −0.6pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  14. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Ozzie Albies

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  15. T9

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  16. T9

    Baldwin lined out to third.

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

    +0.8pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  25. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Drake Baldwin

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  26. T9

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  27. T9

    Ozuna grounded out to third.

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

    +0.8pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 6·KC 9

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

KC

Home

6

Runs

9

14

Hits

12

1

Errors

0

25

TB

19

2

HR

1

5

BB

5

7

K

4

20

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+

Player projections

KC vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Stephen KolekKC
    2.4± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.5%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    58.8%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.4%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.4%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.