• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5WSH
WSH

WSH

43-62

7
2
MIN

MIN

50-55

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
20,374 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 7 · MIN 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH1011400007
MIN0110000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 7–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Harrison Bader

Harrison Bader

CF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH43-62
7
2
MIN50-55
WSH43-62·MIN50-55
WSH

WSH

43-62

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-33321100
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000014
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44111001
SPRINT26.735
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
3-44131010
SPRINT25.18
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-55110000
A. CallA. Call★LF
2-44022010
SPRINT27.765
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44111000
SPRINT29.395
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
1-22011010
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-44000002
Team11-34347117147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
7.0522021
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0100000
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0100010
Team9.0722031
MIN

MIN

50-55

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33011000
SPRINT26.632
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.969
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.251
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44010000
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-44000000
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-44111102
SPRINT2622
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44000001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
2-33120000
SPRINT27.662
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-33000000
Team7-3333272103
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SandsC. Sands★RP
2.0311021
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
1.0111110
T. AdamsT. AdamsRP
3.1555230
B. StewartB. StewartRP
0.2000000
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0000110
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0200000
Team9.01177471

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    86 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      37%·92.0 mph·5% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      22%·76.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      69%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·86.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.6 mph·— whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      36%·88.5 mph·33% whiff

MIN

  • T. Adams
    83 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.3 mph·31% whiff
    • FC
      24%·90.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.7 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • CU
      30%·81.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      19%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      30%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      20%·80.9 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      10%·77.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    17 pitches·6% CSW
    • FS
      47%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      41%·98.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      12%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      55%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      27%·87.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Stewart
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      33%·91.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

7

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Jul 26WSHWSH0@MINMIN1
Jul 26WSHWSH9@MINMIN3
Jul 27WSHWSH7@MINMIN2today

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

Jul 26WSHWSH0@MINMIN1
Jul 26WSHWSH9@MINMIN3
Jul 27WSHWSH7@MINMIN2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 5th Inning

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 5 H

MINMIN
H. Bader

H. Bader

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

T. Adams

T. Adams

RP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat MIN 7-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 65% WP

Wallner · homered to right (452 feet).

WSHTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+9pp→ 58% WP

Abrams · hit by pitch.

WSHTop 5th Inning · 6-2
+14pp→ 90% WP

Call · singled to center, Bell scored and García Jr. scored, Lowe to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH1011400007
MIN0110000002

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · MIN won 1

1
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Wallner 1

1
1

Inn 3

Garc 1

Larnach 1

1
0

Inn 4

DeJong 1

4
0

Inn 5

Call 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
MIN

Play-by-play · 563 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  3. B9

    Lee grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  5. B9

    Clemens to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  6. B9

    Clemens to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  8. B9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Brooks Lee

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  9. B9

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  10. B9

    Wallner struck out swinging.

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  17. B9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Matt Wallner

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  18. B9

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  19. B9

    Lewis lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

    −1pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  21. B9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Royce Lewis

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  22. B9

    ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  23. B9

    Clemens singled to center.

    ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

    +1pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  26. B9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Kody Clemens

    ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  27. B9

    Finnegan relieved Pilkington

    ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 7·MIN 2

  30. T9

    · ·

    WSH 7·MIN 2

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

7

Runs

2

11

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

16

TB

11

1

HR

1

4

BB

0

7

K

3

21

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

MIN vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    59.1%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.5%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.4%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    46
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 94
    297
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    208
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 93
    209
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 93
    112
    5(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 91
    200
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs