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FINAL+7CHC
CHC

CHC

63-45

10
3
MIL

MIL

64-44

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
42,807 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 10 · MIL 3 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC10400300210
MIL1001100003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    163
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 94
    164
    8(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 91
    163
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 90
    104
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 89
    223
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 7, 25sim 89
    163
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 30·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Ian Happ

Ian Happ

LF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
William Contreras

William Contreras

C

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC63-45
10
3
MIL64-44
CHC63-45·MIL64-44
CHC

CHC

63-45

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-55111101
SPRINT25.716
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
2-33122020
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-33000022
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
3-44231001
SPRINT29.294
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-55100000
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-33101011
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-22013000
SPRINT24.53
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-55111001
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-44110002
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
1-11110000
I. HappI. HappLF
1-22111101
SPRINT27.662
Team11-3737101110259
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
5.0533082
B. KellerB. KellerRP
2.0100010
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000000
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0100010
Team9.07330102
MIL

MIL

64-44

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-33001001
SPRINT28.790
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-33000003
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-44222200
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-33000002
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-44010001
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000001
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
2-33120001
SPRINT28.586
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-22010000
A. MonasterioA. MonasterioSS
0-11000000
D. JansenD. JansenC
0-11000001
A. SeiglerA. Seigler2B
0-11000000
Team7-33333732010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
4.0555431
D. HallD. HallRP
1.0333010
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
0.1100100
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.2000030
E. McGeeE. McGeeSP
2.0222021
Team9.0111010592

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    89 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      49%·90.7 mph·24% whiff
    • FS
      27%·83.3 mph·12% whiff
    • ST
      24%·80.6 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Keller
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.6 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      23%·87.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      65%·100.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • CU
      38%·75.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·79.5 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • F. Peralta
    85 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.0 mph·5% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.4 mph·63% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      11%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CS
      5%·75.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·80.4 mph·— whiff
  • E. McGee
    24 pitches·42% CSW
    • CU
      46%·80.3 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·93.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      8%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Hall
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      39%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      28%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·92.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • G. Anderson
    17 pitches·47% CSW
    • ST
      47%·82.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      41%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

10

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 3CHCCHC10@MILMIL0
May 3CHCCHC6@MILMIL2
May 4CHCCHC0@MILMIL4
Jul 28CHCCHC4@MILMIL8
Jul 29CHCCHC3@MILMIL9
Jul 30CHCCHC10@MILMIL3today

Season series

Series tied 4-4

May 3CHCCHC10@MILMIL0
May 3CHCCHC6@MILMIL2
May 4CHCCHC0@MILMIL4
Jun 18MILMIL3@CHCCHC5
Jun 19MILMIL0@CHCCHC0
Jun 19MILMIL8@CHCCHC7
Jul 28CHCCHC4@MILMIL8
Jul 29CHCCHC3@MILMIL9
Jul 30CHCCHC10@MILMIL3today
Aug 18MILMIL7@CHCCHC0
Aug 19MILMIL0@CHCCHC0
Aug 19MILMIL4@CHCCHC6
Aug 20MILMIL1@CHCCHC4
Aug 21MILMIL3@CHCCHC4
Aug 21MILMIL4@CHCCHC1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 3rd Inning

CHCCHC
I. Happ

I. Happ

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 5 H

MILMIL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

CHC beat MIL 10-3. Ballesteros's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 54% WP

Contreras · homered to left (371 feet).

CHCTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 69% WP

Crow-Armstrong · doubled to right, Tucker scored, Suzuki to third.

CHCTop 3rd Inning · 5-1
+24pp→ 86% WP

Ballesteros · doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Hoerner scored and Kelly scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC10400300210
MIL1001100003

Period scoring

CHC won 3 · MIL won 2

1
1

Inn 1

Contreras 1

0
0

Inn 2

4
0

Inn 3

Ballesteros 3

0
1

Inn 4

Contreras 1

0
1

Inn 5

Frelick 1

3
0

Inn 6

Tucker 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Hoerner 1

CHC
MIL

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  3. B9

    Turang grounded out to first.

    · ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  6. B9

    Durbin to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  7. B9

    Durbin to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  9. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Brice Turang

    · ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  10. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  11. B9

    Durbin singled to center.

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  18. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Caleb Durbin

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  19. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  20. B9

    Vaughn flied out to right.

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  23. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  24. B9

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  25. B9

    Jansen struck out looking.

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 10·MIL 3

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

10

Runs

3

11

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

23

TB

14

2

HR

2

5

BB

0

9

K

10

18

LOB

6

Player projections

MIL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    58.6%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.8%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175