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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TOR
NYY

NYY

56-46

4
8
TOR

TOR

60-42

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,143 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

NYY 4 · TOR 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0100120004
TOR000222208

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 22, 25sim 94
    105
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    183
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 93
    122
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 92
    101
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 92
    124
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 92
    75
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off New York Yankees, 8–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Anthony Volpe

Anthony Volpe

SS

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Bo Bichette

Bo Bichette

3B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY56-46
4
8
TOR60-42
NYY56-46·TOR60-42
NYY

NYY

56-46

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT26.735
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.560
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44112101
SPRINT26.838
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44000002
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-44000002
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT26.838
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-22111101
J.C. EscarraJ.C. Escarra★C
0-33000000
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-22000001
J. VivasJ. Vivas3B
0-11000000
Team5-3232454308
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
5.1664330
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
0.2000000
S. EffrossS. EffrossRP
1.0322001
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
1.0100110
Team8.01086441
TOR

TOR

60-42

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-22100010
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-44220010
SPRINT25.920
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-55222002
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44112100
SPRINT25.716
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-33010010
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-44010002
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-44121000
SPRINT27.354
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
1-44111000
SPRINT29.597
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★3B
0-22000000
W. WagnerW. Wagner3B
0-22000000
N. LukesN. LukesRF
0-11000010
Team10-35358106144
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
7.1343083
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
0.2200000
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.0000000
Team9.0543083

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • M. Fried
    102 pitches·22% CSW
    • FC
      49%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.7 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      12%·74.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·80.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      58%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.8 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Effross
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      80%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • CH
      50%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      33%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·98.0 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • C. Bassitt
    94 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      51%·92.2 mph·4% whiff
    • CU
      13%·71.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      12%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      10%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      7%·84.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      4%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·71.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      90%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.0 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      78%·95.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      22%·84.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

4

Runs

8

4

Errors

1

Current series

TOR wins series 6-1

Jun 30NYYNYY4@TORTOR5
Jul 1NYYNYY5@TORTOR12
Jul 2NYYNYY9@TORTOR11
Jul 3NYYNYY5@TORTOR8
Jul 21NYYNYY1@TORTOR4
Jul 22NYYNYY5@TORTOR4
Jul 23NYYNYY4@TORTOR8today

Season series

TOR leads series 7-3

Apr 25TORTOR4@NYYNYY2
Apr 26TORTOR0@NYYNYY0
Apr 27TORTOR2@NYYNYY11
Apr 27TORTOR1@NYYNYY5
Jun 30NYYNYY4@TORTOR5
Jul 1NYYNYY5@TORTOR12
Jul 2NYYNYY9@TORTOR11
Jul 3NYYNYY5@TORTOR8
Jul 21NYYNYY1@TORTOR4
Jul 22NYYNYY5@TORTOR4
Jul 23NYYNYY4@TORTOR8today
Sep 5TORTOR7@NYYNYY1
Sep 6TORTOR1@NYYNYY3
Sep 7TORTOR3@NYYNYY4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 5th Inning

NYYNYY
A. Volpe

A. Volpe

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

TORTOR
B. Bichette

B. Bichette

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

7.1 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 3 H

How it ended

TOR beat NYY 8-4. Guerrero Jr.'s play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

TOR vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 56% WP

Guerrero Jr. · doubled to left, Springer scored.

TORBottom 5th Inning · 2-4
+21pp→ 81% WP

Guerrero Jr. · grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Schneider scored and Springer scored on throwing error by pitcher Fried.

NYYTop 6th Inning · 4-4
+19pp→ 49% WP

Judge · homered to right center (398 feet), Grisham scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0100120004
TOR00022220—8

Period scoring

NYY won 1 · TOR won 3

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Dom 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Jr. 1

1
2

Inn 5

Volpe 1

Jr. 2

2
2

Inn 6

Judge 2

Straw 2

0
2

Inn 7

Bichette 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYY
TOR

Play-by-play · 511 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  2. T9

    Domínguez lined out to center.

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  4. T9

    Yariel Rodriguez pitches to Jasson Dominguez

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  5. T9

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  6. T9

    Chisholm Jr. flied out to left.

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  13. T9

    Yariel Rodriguez pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  14. T9

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  15. T9

    Rice lined out to right.

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

    +0.7pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  18. T9

    Yariel Rodriguez pitches to Ben Rice

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  19. T9

    Rodríguez relieved Bruihl

    ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  20. T9

    Lukes in right field.

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  21. T9

    Barger at third base.

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  22. T9

    Loperfido in left field.

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  25. B8

    · ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  26. B8

    Guerrero Jr. struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

  30. B8

    JT Brubaker pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    · ·

    NYY 4·TOR 8

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

4

Runs

8

5

Hits

10

4

Errors

1

14

TB

18

3

HR

1

0

BB

4

8

K

4

4

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    57.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.7%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.7%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.