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FINAL+4MIL
CHC

CHC

62-44

4
8
MIL

MIL

63-43

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
41,076 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CHC 4 · MIL 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC3000001004
MIL004011208

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 28·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Chicago Cubs, 8–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Sal Frelick

Sal Frelick

RF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC62-44
4
8
MIL63-43
CHC62-44·MIL63-43
CHC

CHC

62-44

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
2-33120011
SPRINT25.716
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-33111020
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44110012
SPRINT27.457
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000002
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-33000001
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44011003
SPRINT27.662
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000011
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.278
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-44000003
Team6-32324620514
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
5.0655521
R. PresslyR. PresslyRP
1.0111001
C. FlexenC. FlexenRP
2.0322011
Team8.01088533
MIL

MIL

63-43

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
2-44221111
SPRINT28.790
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-33000021
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-44220000
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
2-44223100
SPRINT27.148
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-33211110
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-44022000
SPRINT27.867
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-33011000
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33000010
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-44000001
Team10-32328108353
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
4.0332270
D. HallD. HallRP
1.0100110
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0000020
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
0.1111010
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
0.2100010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000010
C. YohoC. YohoRP
0.2000200
T. MegillT. MegillRP
0.1000010
Team9.06435140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • M. Boyd
    90 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.1 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      26%·77.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      12%·72.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Flexen
    25 pitches·16% CSW
    • FC
      40%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·73.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·80.4 mph·— whiff
  • R. Pressly
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·80.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.1 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    80 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      55%·99.0 mph·39% whiff
    • SL
      24%·92.2 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      15%·92.1 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      6%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·83.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·94.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Yoho
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      56%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      44%·78.1 mph·50% whiff
  • N. Mears
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·88.4 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      8%·84.0 mph·— whiff
  • G. Anderson
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      45%·81.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      56%·97.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      22%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      78%·100.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      22%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Megill
    3 pitches·100% CSW
    • FF
      67%·101.0 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      33%·89.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

10

4

Runs

8

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 3CHCCHC10@MILMIL0
May 3CHCCHC6@MILMIL2
May 4CHCCHC0@MILMIL4
Jul 28CHCCHC4@MILMIL8today
Jul 29CHCCHC3@MILMIL9
Jul 30CHCCHC10@MILMIL3

Season series

Series tied 3-3

May 3CHCCHC10@MILMIL0
May 3CHCCHC6@MILMIL2
May 4CHCCHC0@MILMIL4
Jun 18MILMIL3@CHCCHC5
Jun 19MILMIL0@CHCCHC0
Jun 19MILMIL8@CHCCHC7
Jul 28CHCCHC4@MILMIL8today
Jul 29CHCCHC3@MILMIL9
Jul 30CHCCHC10@MILMIL3
Aug 18MILMIL7@CHCCHC0
Aug 19MILMIL0@CHCCHC0
Aug 19MILMIL4@CHCCHC6
Aug 20MILMIL1@CHCCHC4
Aug 21MILMIL3@CHCCHC4
Aug 21MILMIL4@CHCCHC1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

CHCCHC
M. Busch

M. Busch

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 5 BB

MILMIL
S. Frelick

S. Frelick

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat CHC 8-4. Collins's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+12pp→ 84% WP

Happ · reached on infield single to pitcher, Tucker scored and Suzuki scored on throwing error by pitcher Misiorowski.

MILBottom 3rd Inning · 3-3
+19pp→ 53% WP

Collins · singled to right, Contreras scored and Yelich scored, Vaughn to third.

MILBottom 5th Inning · 3-5
+13pp→ 77% WP

Vaughn · homered to left center (398 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC3000001004
MIL00401120—8

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

4

Runs

8

6

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

6

TB

20

0

HR

3

5

BB

5

14

K

3

15

LOB

10

Win probability

MIL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · MIL won 4

3
0

Inn 1

Happ 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
4

Inn 3

Collins 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Vaughn 1

0
1

Inn 6

Frelick 1

1
2

Inn 7

Tucker 1

Yelich 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
MIL

Play-by-play · 560 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  2. T9

    Suzuki struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  6. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Seiya Suzuki

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  7. T9

    Megill relieved Yoho

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  8. T9

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  9. T9

    Tucker walked.

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

    −0.9pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  14. T9

    Busch to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  15. T9

    Busch to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  17. T9

    Craig Yoho pitches to Kyle Tucker

    · ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  18. T9

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  19. T9

    Busch walked.

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  26. T9

    Craig Yoho pitches to Michael Busch

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  27. T9

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  28. T9

    Shaw flied out to center.

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 4·MIL 8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

MIL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.3%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.2%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.4%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 29, 25sim 98
    163
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    1610
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 91
    163
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 91
    104
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 91
    1210
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 90
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs