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FINAL+4MIL
CHC

CHC

92-70

3
7
MIL

MIL

97-65

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
42,787 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CHC 3 · MIL 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC3000000003
MIL301300007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Player projections

MIL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.4%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    58.6%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.9%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 4, 25sim 95
    163
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 94
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 21, 25sim 92
    123
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 91
    195
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 91
    177
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 91
    193
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Oct 6·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 5-0

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Chicago Cubs, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Andrew Vaughn

Andrew Vaughn

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
CHC92-70
3
7
MIL97-65
CHC92-70·MIL97-65
CHC

CHC

92-70

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TurnerJ. Turner★1B
1-22010000
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT28.278
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-33100011
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-33113110
SPRINT27.457
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000002
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-44000002
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000003
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-44000002
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-11000021
M. BuschM. Busch1B
0-22000000
SPRINT25.716
Team4-31313431411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
2.2544032
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0233011
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0000010
C. ReaC. ReaSP
3.1400200
Team8.01177253
MIL

MIL

97-65

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-44123101
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-44221101
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
3-44130000
SPRINT27.148
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-33113110
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-33000010
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33100000
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
1-44010002
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
2-44120000
SPRINT28.790
Team11-33337117325
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AshbyA. Ashby★RP
1.2333211
N. MearsN. MearsRP
0.1000000
J. MisiorowskiJ. MisiorowskiSP
3.0100240
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
1.0000020
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.1000010
T. MegillT. MegillRP
0.2000000
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000030
Team9.04334111

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

11

3

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Playoff series

MIL leads series 2-0

Oct 4CHCCHC3@MILMIL9
Oct 7CHCCHC3@MILMIL7today
Oct 8MILMIL3@CHCCHC4
Oct 10MILMIL0@CHCCHC6
Oct 12CHCCHC1@MILMIL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHCCHC
S. Suzuki

S. Suzuki

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H

MILMIL
A. Vaughn

A. Vaughn

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat CHC 7-3. Vaughn's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

MIL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+24pp→ 68% WP

Suzuki · homered to left center (440 feet), Hoerner scored and Tucker scored.

MILBottom 1st Inning · 3-3
+29pp→ 61% WP

Vaughn · homered to left (382 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.

MILBottom 4th Inning · 3-7
+18pp→ 93% WP

Chourio · homered to center (419 feet), Durbin scored and Ortiz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC3000000003
MIL30130000—7

Period scoring

CHC won 0 · MIL won 2

3
3

Inn 1

Suzuki 3

Vaughn 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Contreras 1

0
3

Inn 4

Chourio 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
MIL

Play-by-play · 543 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  2. T9

    Swanson struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  6. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  7. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  8. T9

    Crow-Armstrong struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  13. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  14. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  15. T9

    Kelly struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

    +0.7pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  22. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Carson Kelly

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  23. T9

    Uribe relieved Megill

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  24. T9

    Lockridge in left field.

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  27. B8

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  28. B8

    Ortiz flied out to right.

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 7

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

3

Runs

7

4

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

7

TB

20

1

HR

3

4

BB

2

11

K

5

8

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278