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FINAL+6MIL
CHC

CHC

62-45

3
9
MIL

MIL

64-43

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
40,136 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CHC 3 · MIL 9 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0100011003
MIL011034009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Player projections

MIL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.7%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    57.3%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.1%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.6%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 28, 25sim 98
    164
    8(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    1610
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 4, 25sim 92
    163
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 91
    104
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 90
    223
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 7, 25sim 89
    163
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 29·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Chicago Cubs, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Andrew Vaughn

Andrew Vaughn

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

6

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC62-45
3
9
MIL64-43
CHC62-45·MIL64-43
CHC

CHC

62-45

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33000000
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-22100020
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.457
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-22111010
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
3-44131100
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-33010000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44011001
SPRINT27.867
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
1-44010002
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-44010000
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
0-22000000
J. BertiJ. Berti3B
0-11000000
V. BrujanV. BrujanSS
0-11000001
Team9-3434393135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
4.0944120
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
0.1110110
R. BrasierR. BrasierRP
0.2000000
R. PresslyR. PresslyRP
1.0143221
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
1.0000100
G. HollowellG. HollowellRP
1.0000130
Team8.01197681
MIL

MIL

64-43

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-55010001
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-33120000
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
3-44231010
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-33200021
SPRINT27.148
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
3-44236101
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-44010012
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-33000002
A. SeiglerA. Seigler★2B
1-11011000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-44000001
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-11200010
SPRINT28.586
Team11-32329119168
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Q. PriesterQ. Priester★SP
5.2822231
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
3.1111120
Team9.0933351

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Rea
    82 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.2 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      22%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. Pressly
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      26%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      15%·89.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      4%·89.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Kriske
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FS
      58%·82.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      37%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Hollowell
    19 pitches·58% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.6 mph·75% whiff
    • ST
      37%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.3 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      88%·93.3 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      12%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Brasier
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.8 mph·50% whiff

MIL

  • Q. Priester
    86 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      45%·94.4 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.1 mph·31% whiff
    • FC
      20%·92.6 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.2 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    42 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.8 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

11

3

Runs

9

2

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 3CHCCHC10@MILMIL0
May 3CHCCHC6@MILMIL2
May 4CHCCHC0@MILMIL4
Jul 28CHCCHC4@MILMIL8
Jul 29CHCCHC3@MILMIL9today
Jul 30CHCCHC10@MILMIL3

Season series

MIL leads series 4-3

May 3CHCCHC10@MILMIL0
May 3CHCCHC6@MILMIL2
May 4CHCCHC0@MILMIL4
Jun 18MILMIL3@CHCCHC5
Jun 19MILMIL0@CHCCHC0
Jun 19MILMIL8@CHCCHC7
Jul 28CHCCHC4@MILMIL8
Jul 29CHCCHC3@MILMIL9today
Jul 30CHCCHC10@MILMIL3
Aug 18MILMIL7@CHCCHC0
Aug 19MILMIL0@CHCCHC0
Aug 19MILMIL4@CHCCHC6
Aug 20MILMIL1@CHCCHC4
Aug 21MILMIL3@CHCCHC4
Aug 21MILMIL4@CHCCHC1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 5th Inning

CHCCHC
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

MILMIL
A. Vaughn

A. Vaughn

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

Q. Priester

Q. Priester

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat CHC 9-3.

Win probability

MIL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 4th Inning · 1-2
+9pp→ 64% WP

Swanson · struck out swinging.

CHCTop 5th Inning · 1-2
+9pp→ 43% WP

Shaw · doubled to right.

MILTop 5th Inning · 1-2
+17pp→ 73% WP

Suzuki · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Tucker out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0100011003
MIL01103400—9

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · MIL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Swanson 1

Seigler 1

0
1

Inn 3

Vaughn 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Contreras 1

1
4

Inn 6

Hoerner 1

Vaughn 4

1
0

Inn 7

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
MIL

Play-by-play · 594 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  2. T9

    Berti grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  5. T9

    Aaron Ashby pitches to Jon Berti

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  6. T9

    Berti hit for Tucker

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  7. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  8. T9

    Turner grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  11. T9

    Aaron Ashby pitches to Justin Turner

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  12. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  13. T9

    Shaw grounded out to third.

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  16. T9

    Aaron Ashby pitches to Matt Shaw

    ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  17. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  18. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  19. B8

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  20. B8

    Collins struck out looking.

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  21. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  22. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  23. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  24. B8

    Gavin Hollowell pitches to Isaac Collins

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  25. B8

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  26. B8

    Vaughn struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  27. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 3·MIL 9

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

3

Runs

9

9

Hits

11

2

Errors

0

15

TB

17

1

HR

1

3

BB

6

5

K

8

19

LOB

20

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278