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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7TEX
ATL

ATL

44-60

1
8
TEX

TEX

56-50

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
35,914 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

ATL 1 · TEX 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0100000001
TEX323000008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Atlanta Braves, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Josh Smith

Josh Smith

2B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL44-60
1
8
TEX56-50
ATL44-60·TEX56-50
ATL

ATL

44-60

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-44000002
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-33000011
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-33000010
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-33100012
SPRINT26.632
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-33000011
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-44020001
SPRINT27.148
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
1-44011002
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-33000001
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT2744
Team4-30301410411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
2.2688431
D. DoddD. DoddRP
3.0200040
H. StrattonH. StrattonRP
2.1200120
Team8.01088591
TEX

TEX

56-50

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
3-44232110
SPRINT27.354
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-44010012
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-55100002
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-22210020
SPRINT26.735
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-44000001
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
2-33123011
SPRINT2872
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-33100001
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-44012001
SPRINT25.920
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
2-44121001
SPRINT25.18
Team10-33338108159
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
6.0211370
C. BoushleyC. BoushleyRP
2.0100110
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0100030
Team9.04114110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • B. Elder
    63 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      46%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·83.9 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    49 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      43%·86.4 mph·15% whiff
    • SI
      41%·93.7 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      16%·82.0 mph·33% whiff
  • H. Stratton
    49 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      24%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.9 mph·— whiff

TEX

  • J. Leiter
    100 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      48%·97.4 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.6 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      19%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Boushley
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      32%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·82.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·76.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Winn
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      26%·88.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

10

1

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 3-0

Jul 26ATLATL3@TEXTEX8
Jul 26ATLATL5@TEXTEX6
Jul 27ATLATL1@TEXTEX8today

Season series

TEX wins series 3-0

Jul 26ATLATL3@TEXTEX8
Jul 26ATLATL5@TEXTEX6
Jul 27ATLATL1@TEXTEX8today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 1st Inning

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

D. Dodd

D. Dodd

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H

TEXTEX
J. Smith

J. Smith

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TEX beat ATL 8-1. Langford's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

TEX vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+21pp→ 84% WP

Langford · doubled to left, A. García scored, Smith scored and Semien scored.

ATLTop 2nd Inning · 1-3
+12pp→ 32% WP

Murphy · hit a ground rule double, Baldwin scored, Riley to third.

TEXBottom 2nd Inning · 1-5
+10pp→ 90% WP

Smith · homered to right (363 feet), Heim scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0100000001
TEX32300000—8

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · TEX won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Langford 3

1
2

Inn 2

Murphy 1

Smith 2

0
3

Inn 3

Jung 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ATL
TEX

Play-by-play · 565 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  2. T9

    Murphy struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  9. T9

    Cole Winn pitches to Sean Murphy

    · ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  10. T9

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  11. T9

    Harris II doubled to center.

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  15. T9

    Cole Winn pitches to Michael Harris II

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  16. T9

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  17. T9

    Riley struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  23. T9

    Cole Winn pitches to Austin Riley

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  24. T9

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  25. T9

    Baldwin struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 1·TEX 8

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

1

Runs

8

4

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

6

TB

14

0

HR

1

4

BB

5

11

K

9

12

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    155
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    201
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 96
    43
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 96
    261
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    112
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    117
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TEX vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.0%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    64.1%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.9%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.4%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.