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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SEA
CHW

CHW

42-73

3
4
SEA

SEA

63-53

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
37,930 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

CHW 3 · SEA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
CHW000010100103
SEA002000000114

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Aug 7·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Chicago White Sox, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Luis Robert Jr.

Luis Robert Jr.

CF

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena

LF

1.000OPS

5-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
CHW42-73
3
4
SEA63-53
CHW42-73·SEA63-53
CHW

CHW

42-73

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-55000011
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-44100002
SPRINT26.941
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-55000001
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
3-44030011
SPRINT2993
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-33000022
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT26.838
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-55000002
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-44111101
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
1-55111102
K. TeelK. TeelC
0-11000000
Team7-40403722412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. SmithS. Smith★SP
5.0422181
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.1000020
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
0.2000110
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0100220
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
1.0010010
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
1.0000010
B. EisertB. EisertRP
0.1110110
Team10.16425161
SEA

SEA

63-53

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-55212103
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-33000011
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-55010000
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-22000001
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-55100003
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-33010021
M. GarverM. Garver★C
1-44010013
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-55011001
SPRINT25.920
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-33110011
SPRINT25.513
D. SolanoD. Solano1B
0-11000001
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000001
Team6-37374631516
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
5.0211361
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
0.2200000
C. VargasC. VargasRP
0.2111011
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.2000010
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0200020
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000010
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0010110
J. KowarJ. KowarRP
1.0000000
Team11.07324122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Smith
    78 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.2 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      24%·82.8 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      18%·90.3 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      3%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • SL
      63%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      37%·95.5 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      53%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      41%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      6%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      47%·99.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      27%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      20%·95.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • S. Wilson
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      83%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hudson
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      36%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·89.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·80.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      38%·83.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      38%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·89.5 mph·— whiff

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    94 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      18%·82.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.3 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Brash
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      75%·86.5 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      40%·89.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      20%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      62%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·98.4 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·97.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Kowar
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      73%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Munoz
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      40%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      40%·84.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Speier
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      56%·94.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·83.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

3

Runs

4

2

Errors

1

Current series

SEA wins series 3-0

Aug 6CHWCHW3@SEASEA8
Aug 7CHWCHW6@SEASEA8
Aug 7CHWCHW3@SEASEA4today

Season series

SEA wins series 5-1

May 19SEASEA5@CHWCHW1
May 20SEASEA0@CHWCHW1
May 21SEASEA6@CHWCHW5
Aug 6CHWCHW3@SEASEA8
Aug 7CHWCHW6@SEASEA8
Aug 7CHWCHW3@SEASEA4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 36pp · Bottom 10th Inning

CHWCHW
L. Robert Jr.

L. Robert Jr.

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.550 OPS

S. Smith

S. Smith

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
R. Arozarena

R. Arozarena

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SEA beat CHW 4-3. Mastrobuoni's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Win probability

SEA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 7th Inning · 2-2
+20pp→ 39% WP

Baldwin · homered to right center (361 feet).

SEABottom 10th Inning · 3-3
+36pp→ 83% WP

Mastrobuoni · hit sacrifice bunt. Mastrobuoni safe at first, Arozarena scored on throwing error by third baseman Rojas. Mastrobuoni to second.

SEABottom 11th Inning · 3-4
+31pp→ 100% WP

Canzone · singled to right, Suárez scored, Garver to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
CHW000010100103
SEA002000000114

Period scoring

CHW won 2 · SEA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Arozarena 2

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Taylor 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Baldwin 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

1
1

Inn 10

Quero 1

Mastrobuoni 1

0
1

Inn 11

Canzone 1

CHW
SEA

Play-by-play · 714 plays

period
event
player
  1. B11

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 4

  2. B11

    Canzone singled to right, Suárez scored, Garver to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 4

    +31pp

  3. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 4

  4. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  5. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  6. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  7. B11

    Brandon Eisert pitches to Dominic Canzone

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 4

  8. B11

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  9. B11

    Garver intentionally walked.

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  10. B11

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  11. B11

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  12. B11

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  13. B11

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  14. B11

    Brandon Eisert pitches to Mitch Garver

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  15. B11

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  16. B11

    Polanco struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

    −11pp

  17. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  18. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  19. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  20. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  21. B11

    Brandon Eisert pitches to Jorge Polanco

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  22. B11

    Eisert relieved Wilson

    ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  23. B11

    Teel catching.

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  24. B11

    Amaya at shortstop.

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  25. B11

    Montgomery at third base.

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  26. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  27. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  28. T11

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

  29. T11

    Tauchman flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

    +8pp

  30. T11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 3·SEA 3

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

3

Runs

4

7

Hits

6

2

Errors

1

14

TB

9

2

HR

1

4

BB

5

12

K

16

24

LOB

17

Player projections

SEA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.2%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    63.7%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.2%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.9%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 97
    264
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    151
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    233
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    112
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    261
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 95
    261
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 11 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688