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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TEX
ATH

ATH

42-61

2
6
TEX

TEX

52-50

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
23,032 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

ATH 2 · TEX 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH1000000102
TEX000101406

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 22, 25sim 97
    112
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 96
    43
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    204
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 95
    201
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    151
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 95
    43
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Athletics, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Lawrence Butler

Lawrence Butler

RF

1.000OPS

5-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH42-61
2
6
TEX52-50
ATH42-61·TEX52-50
ATH

ATH

42-61

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-55111103
SPRINT26.530
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-44100001
SPRINT27.148
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33000012
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44011001
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.735
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44010002
C. ThomasC. Thomas★RF
1-44010002
L. UriasL. Urias★2B
1-44010001
Team7-35352721213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J.T. GinnJ.T. Ginn★SP
5.0511121
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
1.0111001
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
0.2222000
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.1222011
Team8.01066133
TEX

TEX

52-50

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-33111010
SPRINT27.354
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-44123100
SPRINT24.96
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44111100
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-44111100
SPRINT26.735
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-44000000
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-44010002
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-33010000
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33110001
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
2-33120000
SPRINT23.91
Team10-32326106313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
6.0311191
L. JacksonL. JacksonRP
1.0200000
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0110110
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.0100030
Team9.07212131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

TEX

  • R. Garcia
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.5 mph·83% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

2

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

TEX wins series 4-3

Apr 29ATHATH2@TEXTEX1
Apr 30ATHATH2@TEXTEX15
May 1ATHATH7@TEXTEX1
May 1ATHATH3@TEXTEX0
Jul 22ATHATH2@TEXTEX7
Jul 23ATHATH2@TEXTEX6today
Jul 24ATHATH1@TEXTEX2

Season series

ATH leads series 5-4

Apr 23TEXTEX8@ATHATH5
Apr 24TEXTEX2@ATHATH5
Apr 25TEXTEX3@ATHATH4
Apr 29ATHATH2@TEXTEX1
Apr 30ATHATH2@TEXTEX15
May 1ATHATH7@TEXTEX1
May 1ATHATH3@TEXTEX0
Jul 22ATHATH2@TEXTEX7
Jul 23ATHATH2@TEXTEX6today
Jul 24ATHATH1@TEXTEX2
Aug 30TEXTEX5@ATHATH2
Aug 31TEXTEX9@ATHATH3
Aug 31TEXTEX9@ATHATH6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 6th Inning

ATHATH
L. Butler

L. Butler

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

J.T. Ginn

J.T. Ginn

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat ATH 6-2.

Win probability

TEX vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 71% WP

A. Garc · ía homered to center (426 feet).

ATHTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+9pp→ 42% WP

Soderstrom · doubled to right.

TEXBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+15pp→ 81% WP

Semien · homered to left (364 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH1000000102
TEX00010140—6

Period scoring

ATH won 2 · TEX won 3

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Garc 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Semien 1

0
4

Inn 7

Seager 3

1
0

Inn 8

Langeliers 1

0

Inn 9

ATH
TEX

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  2. T9

    Butler struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  6. T9

    Urías to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  7. T9

    Urías to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  12. T9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Lawrence Butler

    · ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  13. T9

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  14. T9

    Urías singled to center.

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  16. T9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Luis Urias

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  17. T9

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  18. T9

    Thomas struck out looking.

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  23. T9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Colby Thomas

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  24. T9

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  25. T9

    Andujar struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

    +0.8pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 2·TEX 6

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

2

Runs

6

7

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

11

TB

20

1

HR

3

2

BB

1

13

K

3

12

LOB

5

Player projections

TEX vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    62.3%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.9%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.4%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872