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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYM
NYM

NYM

61-44

2
1
SF

SF

54-51

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
39,029 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 2 · SF 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000020002
SF0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 3, 25sim 98
    193
    30(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    190
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 96
    195
    30(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 95
    122
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    121
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 94
    191
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/SeriesNYM win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Starling Marte

Starling Marte

RF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM61-44
2
1
SF54-51
NYM61-44·SF54-51
NYM

NYM

61-44

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-55000002
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44010010
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-44100011
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.29
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
2-33120010
SPRINT25.411
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44010000
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-33012001
SPRINT25.513
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-33010010
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-33000013
L. AcunaL. AcunaCF
0-11000001
Team7-3434272058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
6.0811340
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
1.0000020
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0000000
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0100010
Team9.0911370
SF

SF

54-51

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-22110020
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44010001
W. FloresW. Flores★1B
2-44020001
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-33000010
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
3-44031000
SPRINT27.148
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
0-33000000
A. KniznerA. Knizner★C
0-22000001
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
0-11000001
P. BaileyP. BaileyC
0-22000001
Team9-3333191037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
5.2522330
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
0.1000210
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.0000000
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100010
R. RodríguezR. RodríguezRP
1.0100030
Team9.0722580

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • E. Diaz
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      84%·98.0 mph·57% whiff
    • SL
      16%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      33%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      33%·89.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      11%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·97.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      11%·86.9 mph·0% whiff

SF

  • R. Rodríguez
    25 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.6 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • CU
      47%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      35%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·75.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

2

Current series

NYM win series 3-0

Jul 26NYMNYM8@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM2@SFSF1today
Jul 27NYMNYM5@SFSF3

Season series

NYM lead series 2-0

Jul 26NYMNYM8@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM2@SFSF1today
Jul 27NYMNYM5@SFSF3
Aug 1SFSF4@NYMNYM3
Aug 2SFSF6@NYMNYM12
Aug 3SFSF12@NYMNYM4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 35pp · Top 6th Inning

NYMNYM
S. Marte

S. Marte

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYM beat SF 2-1. Vientos's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (35pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 4th Inning · 0-0
+21pp→ 64% WP

Adames · singled to right.

NYMTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+35pp→ 65% WP

Vientos · doubled to left, Marte scored and Soto scored.

SFBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 24% WP

Lee · doubled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000020002
SF0001000001

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · SF won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Lee 1

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Vientos 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYM
SF

Play-by-play · 558 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 2·SF 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  3. B9

    Bailey lined out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

    −12pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  8. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Patrick Bailey

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  9. B9

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  10. B9

    Yastrzemski struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

    −12pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  15. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  16. B9

    Yastrzemski hit for Matos

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  17. B9

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  18. B9

    Lee doubled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

    +15pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  22. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  23. B9

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  24. B9

    Schmitt lined out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

    −9pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  28. B9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Casey Schmitt

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  29. B9

    Díaz relieved Stanek

    ·

    NYM 2·SF 1

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYM 2·SF 1

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SF

Home

2

Runs

1

7

Hits

9

0

Errors

2

12

TB

10

0

HR

0

5

BB

3

8

K

7

22

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 61 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.3± 2.7low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.9%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    48.5%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.2%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.9%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.