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FINAL+3PIT
LAD

LAD

78-61

0
3
PIT

PIT

63-77

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
16,473 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

LAD 0 · PIT 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000000000
PIT110001003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 3, 25sim 98
    130
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 97
    191
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    193
    30(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    212
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    182
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    171
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 3·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 3–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Dalton Rushing

Dalton Rushing

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Joey Bart

Joey Bart

C

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD78-61
0
3
PIT63-77
LAD78-61·PIT63-77
LAD

LAD

78-61

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-55020002
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33000011
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-11000000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-22000020
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.765
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-44000002
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-33000001
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
0-33000001
D. RushingD. RushingC
1-22010010
SPRINT27.867
H. KimH. KimSS
0-11000000
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
0-11000001
Team5-3131050069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
4.2522262
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
1.1211000
J. WrobleskiJ. WrobleskiSP
2.0000020
Team8.0733282
PIT

PIT

63-77

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-44000000
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-11000021
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-44111102
SPRINT27.969
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-44000001
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT27.662
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-44000001
J. BartJ. Bart★C
3-33031000
SPRINT26.428
C. DevanneyC. Devanney★SS
1-33010001
Team7-3131373228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
3.0200440
M. BurrowsM. BurrowsSP
3.0200120
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.0100100
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000010
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000020
Team9.0500690

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • E. Sheehan
    84 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      39%·97.0 mph·37% whiff
    • SL
      35%·88.6 mph·47% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.0 mph·63% whiff
    • CU
      7%·78.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wrobleski
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      33%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·93.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Casparius
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      36%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      23%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.9 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    71 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      30%·93.0 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      24%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·96.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      1%·91.0 mph·— whiff
  • M. Burrows
    45 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.0 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      13%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      53%·90.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      32%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·76.7 mph·— whiff
  • I. Mattson
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      83%·94.5 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      64%·87.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      36%·94.9 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

0

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 3-0

Sep 2LADLAD7@PITPIT9
Sep 3LADLAD0@PITPIT3today
Sep 4LADLAD3@PITPIT5

Season series

PIT leads series 3-2

Apr 26PITPIT3@LADLAD0
Apr 27PITPIT4@LADLAD8
Apr 27PITPIT2@LADLAD9
Sep 2LADLAD7@PITPIT9
Sep 3LADLAD0@PITPIT3today
Sep 4LADLAD3@PITPIT5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 5th Inning

LADLAD
D. Rushing

D. Rushing

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
J. Bart

J. Bart

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

PIT beat LAD 3-0.

Win probability

PIT vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 55% WP

Reynolds · homered to right center (404 feet).

PITBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 70% WP

McCutchen · homered to left (408 feet).

PITTop 5th Inning · 0-2
+16pp→ 78% WP

Freeman · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Betts out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000000000
PIT11000100—3

Period scoring

LAD won 0 · PIT won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Reynolds 1

0
1

Inn 2

McCutchen 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Bart 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAD
PIT

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  2. T9

    Ohtani struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  7. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  8. T9

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  9. T9

    Conforto struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

    +0.9pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  13. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Michael Conforto

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  14. T9

    Conforto hit for E. Hernández

    · ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  15. T9

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  16. T9

    Kim lined out to center.

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

    +2pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  21. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Hyeseong Kim

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  22. T9

    Santana relieved Mattson

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  23. T9

    Kim hit for Freeland

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  26. B8

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  27. B8

    Cruz grounded out to third.

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  29. B8

    Justin Wrobleski pitches to Oneil Cruz

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

  30. B8

    ·

    LAD 0·PIT 3

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

0

Runs

3

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

6

TB

14

0

HR

2

6

BB

2

9

K

8

21

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PIT vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    48.4%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.2%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.