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FINAL+3LAD
LAD

LAD

65-47

3
0
TB

TB

55-58

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 3 · TB 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000011013
TB0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 27, 25sim 98
    212
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 98
    195
    30(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 96
    190
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    190
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 94
    183
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 94
    130
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 3·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 3–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD65-47
3
0
TB55-58
LAD65-47·TB55-58
LAD

LAD

65-47

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-33120021
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33001010
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
3-55131000
SPRINT24.74
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44010000
SPRINT2744
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-33000010
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-33011000
SPRINT28.175
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-44000002
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-22010000
A. CallA. Call★LF
0-33100010
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-22000000
Team8-3232383053
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
5.2500060
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.1000010
B. StewartB. StewartRP
1.0100000
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.2100220
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
0.1000000
Team9.0700290
TB

TB

55-58

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-55000000
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-44000000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-33010011
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
1-44010002
SPRINT27.354
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT2993
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
0-33000001
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
0-22000012
T. GrayT. Gray3B
0-11000001
Team7-3434070029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BoyleJ. Boyle★SP
5.0300220
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
2.0422200
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000010
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0111100
Team9.0833530

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • Y. Yamamoto
    88 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.2 mph·19% whiff
    • FS
      20%·90.6 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      15%·76.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·88.2 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      42%·83.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      75%·92.1 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Stewart
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.2 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      21%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.5 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Casparius
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      50%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      25%·83.6 mph·— whiff

TB

  • J. Boyle
    71 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      59%·98.1 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      30%·91.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      11%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Englert
    47 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      45%·87.4 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      17%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·75.6 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Jax
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      36%·96.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      32%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      17%·89.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

3

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Aug 1LADLAD5@TBTB0
Aug 2LADLAD0@TBTB4
Aug 3LADLAD3@TBTB0today

Season series

LAD win series 2-1

Aug 1LADLAD5@TBTB0
Aug 2LADLAD0@TBTB4
Aug 3LADLAD3@TBTB0today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 6th Inning

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.467 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 5 H

TBTB
J. Caminero

J. Caminero

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Boyle

J. Boyle

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TB 3-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 59% WP

Walls · hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Walls to first on error by first baseman Freeman, DeLuca to third.

LADTop 6th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 73% WP

Pages · singled to left, Freeman scored, Conforto to second.

LADTop 7th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 88% WP

Freeman · singled to right, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000011013
TB0000000000

Period scoring

LAD won 3 · TB won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Pages 1

1
0

Inn 7

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Betts 1

LAD
TB

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 3·TB 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  3. B9

    Díaz grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

    −9pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  8. B9

    Ben Casparius pitches to Yandy Diaz

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  9. B9

    Casparius relieved Treinen

    ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  10. B9

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  11. B9

    Walls walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

    +6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  18. B9

    Mangum to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  19. B9

    Mangum to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  21. B9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Taylor Walls

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  22. B9

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  23. B9

    Gray struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

    −6pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  28. B9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Tristan Gray

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  29. B9

    Gray hit for DeLuca

    ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

  30. B9

    · ·

    LAD 3·TB 0

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

TB

Home

3

Runs

0

8

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

10

TB

7

0

HR

0

5

BB

2

3

K

9

17

LOB

20

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TB vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.6± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    47.7%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.1%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.9%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.